Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf691e864aa18b99679c931f4f4c2453044a1e5cbaffc27ed90053cd613808e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 55c | 1,029$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.35 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 43c | 242.53$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.59 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 31c | 184.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 164.84$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 42c | 164.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 129.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 53c | 115.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 113.31$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 53c | 112.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 49c | 105.39$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…f976backed No | 55c | 89.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 58c | 85.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 16c | 83.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 60c | 83.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 81.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 52c | 69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 41c | 67.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 64.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 62.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 46c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 59.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 48c | 55.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 47c | 52.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 34c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 56c | 50.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 49.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 43c | 46.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 50c | 41.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 40c | 39.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 50c | 37.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 57c | 35.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 67c | 34.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 78c | 34.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26da…8999backed Yes | 46c | 32.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 57c | 30.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 43c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 80c | 24.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 56c | 23.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e3…f73fbacked No | 46c | 22.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 60c | 20.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 19.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 58c | 19.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 61c | 17.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.