TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hornets vs. Celtics: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Hornetsof Hornets, Celtics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,086
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,114

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,086 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Hornets43c1,379$597 inWon+$782.815,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Celtics63c931.54$587 inLost-$586.6757444.1%253 W · 321 L-20.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4371…4fd9backed Celtics49c145.8$71 inLost-$70.983063.3%19 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Celtics47c145$68 inLost-$68.261,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Celtics49c99.75$49 inLost-$48.5517946.4%83 W · 96 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Hornets67c89.64$60 inWon+$29.6632654.6%178 W · 148 L+22.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2488…ff0ebacked Hornets58c84.81$49 inWon+$35.621546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Celtics58c79.05$46 inLost-$45.851,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Hornets42c76.3$32 inWon+$44.2513153.4%70 W · 61 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Celtics44c71.24$31 inLost-$31.3876653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb74…53c2backed Celtics38c43.5$17 inLost-$16.531040%4 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-40.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2dcc…45f6backed Celtics36c37.56$14 inLost-$13.526553.8%35 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6af…05c6backed Celtics36c37.4$13 inLost-$13.467548%36 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b1…63ecbacked Celtics37c27.21$10 inLost-$10.079334.4%32 W · 61 L-11.4wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Hornets57c24.36$14 inWon+$10.4745445.4%206 W · 248 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.