TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Euroleague · resolved market

Will Lithuania win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,960
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,842

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,960 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ef5…39edbacked Yes4c16,775$590 inLost-$590.133240.6%13 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c11,000$48 inLost-$4820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c9,333$65 inLost-$64.61598.2%13 W · 146 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-66.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes0c7,426$36 inLost-$35.791315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes3c4,245$144 inLost-$144.32616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-65.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes2c3,915$98 inLost-$97.641711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-75.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa264…e26abacked Yes3c3,139$100 inLost-$1001030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-41.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8017…6c1cbacked Yes1c3,009$44 inLost-$43.591450%7 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+115.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a36…bf53backed Yes3c1,793$60 inLost-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1620…f529backed Yes3c1,719$44 inLost-$43.681741.2%7 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.19per pick22cpaid+44.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes1c1,615$23 inLost-$23.441330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eab…4f53backed Yes3c1,511$50 inLost-$49.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Yes4c1,111$40 inLost-$401225%3 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes2c999.82$16 inLost-$16.392825%7 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-45.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed Yes2c734.59$18 inLost-$17.921421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-58.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1654…4f2cbacked Yes3c354.65$11 inLost-$11.441338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07df…4279backed Yes4c236.52$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.