South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-08-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0204ff855ab5e5a8b85ef05e4b70355d7b3bcac80eb94ca60f30e05e04d3a53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Yes | 40c | 40,000$16,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,999.99 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 60c | 34,688$20,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,875.2 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…7c4ebacked No | 60c | 4,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 76c | 3,949$2,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.43 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e60…cb75backed Yes | 39c | 3,577$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 66c | 2,140$1,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.81 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 1,856$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.02 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 78c | 1,556$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.29 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 31c | 799.98$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.99 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 59c | 793.25$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.63 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…81afbacked Yes | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…dddfbacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed No | 61c | 532$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.48 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 77c | 513.64$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.81 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…dc83backed Yes | 40c | 389.58$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.71 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x545b…7e82backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked No | 60c | 360$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 68c | 347.58$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.19 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…4aeebacked No | 62c | 323$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.74 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 40c | 294$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.82 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ec…351fbacked Yes | 27c | 271$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8969…2a77backed Yes | 40c | 252.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb399…9435backed Yes | 8c | 248.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9f…c675backed Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3840…93ffbacked Yes | 42c | 236.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 18c | 208.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 209 | 34%71 W · 138 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…920dbacked Yes | 31c | 205$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…f16abacked Yes | 41c | 195.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bf…b006backed No | 61c | 186.3$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.66 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2316…9819backed No | 60c | 177.41$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 17c | 163.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 289 | 40.1%116 W · 173 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed No | 62c | 161$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9510…2e7ebacked Yes | 27c | 150.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…9ce5backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 58c | 115$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 58c | 115$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Yes | 38c | 103.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 310 | 39.7%123 W · 187 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Yes | 39c | 99.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 25c | 99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked No | 62c | 95.16$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 59c | 91.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Yes | 18c | 88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 40c | 83.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 30c | 66.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 60c | 66.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…b370backed No | 62c | 60.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 61c | 58.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Yes | 38c | 56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 23c | 50.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 23c | 50.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 23c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ab…eefdbacked Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 44c | 41.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…637cbacked No | 61c | 40.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…6b94backed Yes | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa29c…0a3dbacked Yes | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70bb…e43cbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 60c | 21.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA River Plate win on 2026-08-12?this page
- Will Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA River Plate end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-08-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.