South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA River Plate end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b025d70d5d1467bf06a004d3e8ad9d26ab2de3d93c7274060dbe4ec0d2936f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 7c | 5,017$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.47 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 46c | 2,225$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.7 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 11c | 1,717$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.92 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…e517backed Yes | 73c | 1,503$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.32 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed No | 48c | 1,280$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.22 | 92 | 7.6%7 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 52c | 999.87$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.42 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 56c | 813$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.3 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 33c | 511$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.54 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 67c | 292.31$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.88 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…5449backed No | 49c | 187.45$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 67c | 176.12$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.81 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 19c | 155.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cda…1397backed Yes | 68c | 147.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 11c | 146.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 35c | 135.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 199 | 53.3%106 W · 93 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…01e5backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…3e21backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 98.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 70c | 93.34$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 70c | 93.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed No | 33c | 88.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 30c | 81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 278 | 55.4%154 W · 124 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked No | 28c | 75.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x544f…3ca1backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +6.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2a49…737abacked Yes | 72c | 74.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 46c | 70.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 67c | 57.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 52c | 54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b9…f9ebbacked Yes | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c0…a298backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 52c | 27.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 52c | 27.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc401…ce26backed No | 49c | 21.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2a1fbacked Yes | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 45 | 77.8%35 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bde…ecbabacked Yes | 71c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA River Plate end in a draw?this page
- Will CA River Plate win on 2026-08-12?No won
- Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-08-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.