TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: WLGaming Esports vs Team Phantasma (BO5) - HLL Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
WLGaming Esportsof WLGaming Esports, Team Phantasma
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$106,241
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$122,487

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,241 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1bdd…23dcbacked Team Phantasma49c10,699$5,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,252.8517163.2%108 W · 63 L+18.6wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+19.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed WLGaming Esports52c9,968$5,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,831.5927353.1%145 W · 128 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Team Phantasma50c6,778$3,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,373.8826144.1%115 W · 146 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cc5…625dbacked Team Phantasma6c5,874$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.84318.6%8 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked WLGaming Esports49c4,496$2,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,291.013762.2%23 W · 14 L+6.8wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+33.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb43b…2394backed Team Phantasma65c4,359$2,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,85520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x858e…1c3bbacked Team Phantasma53c4,126$2,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,189.026237.1%23 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed WLGaming Esports30c2,196$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,531.8430139.5%119 W · 182 L+0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked WLGaming Esports53c2,131$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.9832345.8%148 W · 175 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Phantasma54c1,868$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.4459952.8%316 W · 283 L-3.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Team Phantasma48c1,717$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.191,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7244…7c2abacked Team Phantasma41c1,633$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.53250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed WLGaming Esports58c1,615$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.931,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed WLGaming Esports54c1,516$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.3842735.4%151 W · 276 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd428…100abacked Team Phantasma42c1,464$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.88450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed WLGaming Esports31c1,415$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.1812844.5%57 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f38…f189backed WLGaming Esports79c1,335$1,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.75475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked WLGaming Esports31c1,313$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.7714835.1%52 W · 96 L-9.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2a5…09cfbacked Team Phantasma41c1,313$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+132.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x183c…9bf6backed Team Phantasma41c1,295$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.95250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Phantasma46c1,237$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.951,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d9f…787abacked Team Phantasma40c1,234$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.3361045.2%276 W · 334 L+35.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed Team Phantasma48c1,200$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.9960855.8%339 W · 269 L-14.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31d2…71d8backed Team Phantasma41c1,194$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.54250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60f0…a9e5backed Team Phantasma41c1,123$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4686…4d0ebacked Team Phantasma41c1,116$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x589b…f41cbacked Team Phantasma41c1,013$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4445…09a3backed Team Phantasma62c1,007$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.51145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xafe8…5f44backed WLGaming Esports28c1,000$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720535.7%3 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-82.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1bf…f357backed WLGaming Esports53c983.49$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.8911340.7%46 W · 67 L-12.4wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-27.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5530…2cd6backed Team Phantasma41c978$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed WLGaming Esports51c964.82$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.713,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4597…a491backed WLGaming Esports59c955$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+141.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1947…02b4backed WLGaming Esports53c952.03$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.0316745.5%76 W · 91 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cd8…1f6bbacked WLGaming Esports59c945$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick60cpaid+68.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6def…2ce0backed WLGaming Esports58c888$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+142.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee8…01b2backed Team Phantasma42c866$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.72250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Phantasma47c848.85$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.441,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked WLGaming Esports52c822.1$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.8622336.8%82 W · 141 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked WLGaming Esports38c797.42$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.2146637.6%175 W · 291 L-19.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed WLGaming Esports52c765$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.22,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aa7…db93backed WLGaming Esports40c745.16$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.1623674.6%176 W · 60 L+17.9wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+10.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e71…2d4bbacked WLGaming Esports59c728$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.483100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+200.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Team Phantasma47c699.99$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3291,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5b9…65a5backed WLGaming Esports59c694$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x632e…ade1backed WLGaming Esports59c688$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.082100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick60cpaid+68.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1173…1d74backed WLGaming Esports38c681.98$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.8533040.3%133 W · 197 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e18…5a76backed WLGaming Esports59c679$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick65cpaid+56.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7205…4525backed WLGaming Esports59c647$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.272100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick65cpaid+56.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc387…98fcbacked WLGaming Esports59c624$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.843100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+190.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e03…7f16backed WLGaming Esports59c619$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.792100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick65cpaid+56.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd742…2fd4backed WLGaming Esports58c576$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f1b…a119backed WLGaming Esports59c547$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.272100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick65cpaid+56.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…93c6backed WLGaming Esports58c517$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.14650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd2f…a353backed WLGaming Esports59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2052100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed WLGaming Esports56c499.98$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.11944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x264d…13fdbacked WLGaming Esports59c492$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ef9…9fcebacked WLGaming Esports59c478$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick65cpaid+56.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd90c…b513backed Team Phantasma44c451.75$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.371643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Phantasma57c424.15$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.752,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9135…a63ebacked Team Phantasma22c410$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.17919%15 W · 64 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc155…d550backed WLGaming Esports73c402.04$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.4514854.7%81 W · 67 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed WLGaming Esports60c400$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16024941.4%103 W · 146 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e6…911dbacked WLGaming Esports59c395$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick65cpaid+56.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dfe…d83fbacked Team Phantasma60c372.82$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-61.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0d1…8e71backed Team Phantasma72c359.83$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.42862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-9.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3ab4…5c79backed WLGaming Esports58c349$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Team Phantasma55c347.54$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19011563.5%73 W · 42 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a43…44cdbacked WLGaming Esports59c340$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc6d…c521backed WLGaming Esports59c334$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.94475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick41cpaid+125.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed WLGaming Esports56c327.95$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.681,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed WLGaming Esports58c318.93$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.9510851.9%56 W · 52 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb87…4611backed WLGaming Esports36c318.07$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.9926556.2%149 W · 116 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed WLGaming Esports53c309.23$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.7941133.8%139 W · 272 L-28.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed WLGaming Esports27c308.92$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.781,13030%339 W · 791 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed WLGaming Esports40c300$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18017942.5%76 W · 103 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked WLGaming Esports47c295$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.3575942%319 W · 440 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24ac…f6b4backed WLGaming Esports34c291.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.2934631.2%108 W · 238 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Team Phantasma41c290.53$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.1218633.3%62 W · 124 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c5f…1321backed Team Phantasma72c290.15$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.23933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-31.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed WLGaming Esports60c279$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.63250%16 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2818…04a2backed WLGaming Esports73c273.65$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.653574.3%26 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf704…bed4backed WLGaming Esports51c269.31$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.8117838.8%69 W · 109 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7044…2eb6backed Team Phantasma73c264.66$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.233857.1%193 W · 145 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed WLGaming Esports60c253.33$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.3323832.4%77 W · 161 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked WLGaming Esports54c249.04$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.5653649.8%267 W · 269 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked WLGaming Esports56c235.45$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.382,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed WLGaming Esports49c229.99$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.951127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked WLGaming Esports54c229.63$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.6340741.5%169 W · 238 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked Team Phantasma58c221.04$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12926448.5%128 W · 136 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1727…9e2bbacked Team Phantasma69c218.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed WLGaming Esports49c217.35$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.8556432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ac8…45c4backed WLGaming Esports34c213.07$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.6951044.9%229 W · 281 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x605c…e932backed Team Phantasma23c212.57$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe52b…3837backed WLGaming Esports54c203$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a33…7909backed Team Phantasma41c201.8$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.743557.1%20 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddd3…dba6backed WLGaming Esports49c200.49$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2511833.9%40 W · 78 L-10.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x534b…983fbacked WLGaming Esports32c200$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13742835%150 W · 278 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Team Phantasma43c199.69$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7731643%136 W · 180 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked WLGaming Esports50c198.83$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.1821457.5%123 W · 91 L+13.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.