Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1698b50e5101e05ac45e77856923279a7819ebe556ef67c47280682d6c51133
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 47c | 774.99$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.53 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 461$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.71 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 36c | 279.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.82 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 48c | 225.86$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.45 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 43c | 217.3$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.83 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 198.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.94 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 122.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 56c | 118.3$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 49c | 111.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 39c | 105$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 102$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 52c | 92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 29c | 88.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 12c | 87.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.77 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 37c | 77.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed Yes | 55c | 77.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 76.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 41c | 70.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 62c | 69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 42c | 64.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 53c | 57.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 61c | 56.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 45c | 50.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 35c | 50.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 39c | 50.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 59c | 49.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 35c | 46.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 46c | 43.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 44c | 42.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 44c | 41.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 45c | 38.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 58c | 37.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 40c | 37.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed No | 72c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 54c | 34.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 54c | 33.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 32.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked Yes | 55c | 32.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…5bdebacked No | 55c | 32.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 33c | 32.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 54c | 31.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed Yes | 75c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 62c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 59c | 29.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 42c | 28.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 46c | 28.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 58c | 24.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 60c | 20.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 52c | 20.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 60c | 17.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 65c | 15.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.