TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$124,230
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$98,572

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,230 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8679…4659backed No70c16,912$11,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,073.51457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+21.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x571c…c16abacked Yes30c16,667$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010848.1%52 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Yes7c16,623$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.628070%196 W · 84 L+49.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+54.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Yes17c16,290$2,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,742.6113547.4%64 W · 71 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes25c7,597$1,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,862.2779639.6%315 W · 481 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes4c5,885$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.3936954.5%201 W · 168 L+50.1wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+91.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xab46…eb4ebacked No71c4,247$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,247.36666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x337b…0503backed Yes32c3,934$1,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.03450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Yes31c3,050$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.568026.3%179 W · 501 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3cf…a5d4backed No70c2,868$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$868.211070%7 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eaf…5d2bbacked Yes4c2,694$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e0…1dd2backed Yes29c2,328$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.246953.6%37 W · 32 L+7.7wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xae36…8fb5backed Yes7c2,243$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.43537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5050…9a6fbacked No69c2,174$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.97450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes31c1,500$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4659148.4%44 W · 47 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Yes30c1,488$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.5313857.2%79 W · 59 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No69c1,430$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.328246.1%130 W · 152 L-12.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3fc…b756backed No70c1,428$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.493857.9%22 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6705…8184backed Yes1c1,415$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.154850%24 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x686e…af8cbacked Yes4c1,323$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.488825%22 W · 66 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes30c1,245$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.921,20450.7%610 W · 594 L+1.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1703…6d6cbacked No69c1,158$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.01250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe742…7559backed No71c943.1$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.55253.8%28 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40a3…6ed8backed Yes31c822.81$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.071241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes31c806.16$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.8544939.6%178 W · 271 L+1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes30c781.71$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.7368942.2%291 W · 398 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b2a…6df2backed Yes31c775$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed No70c762.38$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.7113829%40 W · 98 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-29.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes3c737.7$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c46…2d80backed No69c680$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9df…05b8backed Yes11c661.29$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd882…0c09backed Yes4c515.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes31c467.74$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1459537.9%36 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd55c…34febacked No74c463.86$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.69255.4%51 W · 41 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Yes29c460.25$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.4421445.8%98 W · 116 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Yes31c435.48$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1352941.4%12 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes30c400$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1205442.6%23 W · 31 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked No75c333$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2569772.6%506 W · 191 L+83.8wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+26.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7e3d…bf10backed Yes31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006139.3%24 W · 37 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef3c…8e97backed Yes27c319.7$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b8…f54cbacked Yes21c317.71$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.671346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee40…5ff2backed Yes32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd347…b576backed No74c300$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes24c300$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7314732%47 W · 100 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x616b…72f7backed Yes19c263.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502025%5 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a0e…4dc6backed No69c259.64$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.646167.2%41 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5377…e6dabacked Yes4c252.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked No71c230$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.73836.8%14 W · 24 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-31.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3036…15c2backed Yes7c230$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.49840.8%40 W · 58 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4114…b9acbacked Yes30c210.18$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0511527%31 W · 84 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes10c202.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206425%16 W · 48 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-19.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x22bf…8f77backed Yes6c200.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6d9…ed60backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608747.1%41 W · 46 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked No69c199.99$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6317837.6%67 W · 111 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d07…35e6backed No69c188.41$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.41887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick74cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad8c…f563backed Yes26c174.11$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf536…e40cbacked Yes30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017234.9%60 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5032…d300backed Yes30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502931%9 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf919…db8fbacked Yes18c166.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f66…8938backed Yes7c160.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125238.5%20 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed No72c139$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9242048.6%204 W · 216 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6391…bc1cbacked No75c138$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.52962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b6a…62c5backed Yes32c137.5$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Yes14c126.78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0318752.9%99 W · 88 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdd4…7696backed Yes30c124.83$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4514643.2%63 W · 83 L-0.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd428…92d8backed Yes31c122.84$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.08922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-70.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26ae…97b8backed No72c118$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5852060.4%314 W · 206 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95a6…8080backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0363…d67abacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102634.6%9 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc190…b3aebacked No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e4a…5ff8backed Yes22c86.36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked No73c83$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.416177%47 W · 14 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3def…08b4backed Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cab…f4ecbacked No70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.431668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe216…cd12backed No69c70$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.71060%6 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11ce…814abacked Yes31c64.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed No76c60.2$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4520958.9%123 W · 86 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbb4…7ec5backed Yes31c54$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x751e…3b9dbacked No69c54$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a5d…430abacked No69c50.72$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.722245.5%10 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.17per pick63cpaid-28.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6fd9…f0d5backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157869.2%54 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73a0…68dfbacked Yes31c48.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed No70c39.71$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9136845.7%168 W · 200 L-1.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09fd…ef65backed Yes32c37.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+41%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103336.4%12 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07c4…133ebacked Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-67.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x45ce…7d0abacked Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fab…5e80backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-57.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x18f1…6feabacked Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb17…13fabacked No70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.572875%21 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe970…dce1backed No71c26.46$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.67250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed No73c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.055653.6%30 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.