NBA · resolved market

Bucks vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd194d3335c7fbedf7631af3804a08bf257fe7cf6c88743108a22b7aae5b29bb0

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 3, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $712,788
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $713,150

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $712,788 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2635…5408backed Under	49c	661,003$322,472 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$338,530.69	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Over	51c	198,540$101,249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101,248.54	192	49.5%95 W · 97 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Over	51c	175,000$89,250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89,250	63	52.4%33 W · 30 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Over	51c	88,888$45,333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45,332.88	88	43.2%38 W · 50 L	-6.0wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-19%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Over	52c	51,682$26,875 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26,874.64	418	48.3%202 W · 216 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Over	52c	50,000$26,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26,000	148	56.1%83 W · 65 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over	51c	30,000$15,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15,400	668	53.4%357 W · 311 L	+22.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	52c	23,952$12,385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,385.43	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb6…3009backed Over	51c	20,000$10,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,200	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Over	52c	16,754$8,660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,659.94	315	38.1%120 W · 195 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	49c	10,612$5,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,412.24	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over	51c	10,000$5,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,100	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Under	49c	5,304$2,593 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,711.26	710	52.1%370 W · 340 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Over	52c	4,980$2,590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,589.6	474	48.7%231 W · 243 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84ec…5696backed Under	48c	4,450$2,136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,314	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-4.7wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Over	52c	4,411$2,294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,293.54	824	42.2%348 W · 476 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Over	51c	3,667$1,884 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,884.28	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Over	52c	2,969$1,544 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,543.84	762	49.5%377 W · 385 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over	52c	1,378$717 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$716.68	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed Under	47c	1,317$623 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$693.67	230	47%108 W · 122 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Under	49c	1,313$643 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$669.63	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over	52c	1,000$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	362	48.9%177 W · 185 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Over	53c	882$467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466.62	361	48.5%175 W · 186 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f43…3ec1backed Under	48c	621$298 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$322.92	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7b0…bd69backed Over	51c	588.24$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Over	51c	500$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	179	41.9%75 W · 104 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	53c	498$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.94	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Over	53c	415$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.95	428	45.1%193 W · 235 L	-15.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa65b…0419backed Over	52c	384.62$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	147	63.3%93 W · 54 L	+4.6wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcad1…9d3abacked Over	53c	310$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.3	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x089f…6b0cbacked Under	48c	309$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160.68	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.52per pick	48cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	52c	249$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.31	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	52c	157$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.64	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed Under	48c	150$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78	123	42.3%52 W · 71 L	-6.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2663…b0bbbacked Over	51c	114$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.14	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-3.4wins	-0.20per pick	56cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x375e…6c94backed Over	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	85	40%34 W · 51 L	-8.4wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4731…cba8backed Over	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	120	50.8%61 W · 59 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7881…5c15backed Over	53c	75$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.75	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-3.3wins	-0.26per pick	57cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Under	48c	64.71$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.65	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Over	52c	60$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	197	56.3%111 W · 86 L	+8.5wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5dd…b094backed Over	53c	60$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	339	50.1%170 W · 169 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef68…9cdfbacked Over	54c	55.56$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b9e…4580backed Under	48c	52.08$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.08	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc757…f18cbacked Over	52c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	86	61.6%53 W · 33 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	60cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Under	48c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.48	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe714…c180backed Over	53c	22.64$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.16per pick	58cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bucks vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event