NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bucks (-6.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45f3c1ca4981a4a60384630d9e51a884058064346c78df842f590ed6e30086a8

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Pacersof Bucks, Pacers
Resolved: Nov 3, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $96,662
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $99,999

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,662 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Pacers	51c	25,000$12,750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,250	382	48.7%186 W · 196 L	+13.9wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Bucks	49c	22,068$10,813 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,813.39	668	53.4%357 W · 311 L	+22.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb6…3009backed Pacers	51c	14,848$7,573 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,275.58	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bucks	48c	12,775$6,117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,116.97	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Pacers	52c	10,000$5,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,800	346	45.4%157 W · 189 L	+8.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bucks	52c	7,017$3,636 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,636.28	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pacers	52c	6,000$3,120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,880	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Bucks	44c	5,234$2,325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,325.02	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe66e…abddbacked Bucks	49c	4,644$2,276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,275.56	40	35%14 W · 26 L	-4.3wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Pacers	52c	4,401$2,289 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,112.89	662	50.8%336 W · 326 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Bucks	48c	4,000$1,920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,919.99	801	46.4%372 W · 429 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Bucks	49c	3,000$1,470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,470	453	48.1%218 W · 235 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Bucks	48c	2,968$1,423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,422.7	300	53.3%160 W · 140 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Pacers	45c	2,600$1,170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,430	200	34%68 W · 132 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Pacers	50c	2,079$1,039 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,039.48	747	48.5%362 W · 385 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Bucks	49c	2,000$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$980	172	50%86 W · 86 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Pacers	52c	1,776$918 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$858.18	710	52.1%370 W · 340 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Pacers	50c	1,410$705 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$705	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b4f…b4b5backed Bucks	50c	1,400$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…ee55backed Bucks	50c	1,400$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Pacers	53c	1,064$564 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500.15	507	54.2%275 W · 232 L	+13.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bucks	47c	1,000$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9cf…9527backed Bucks	49c	1,000$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-2.1wins	-0.23per pick	57cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Pacers	53c	1,000$530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$470	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Bucks	47c	904.87$422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$421.65	471	44.2%208 W · 263 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cd4…ce48backed Bucks	49c	816.31$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.99	46	56.5%26 W · 20 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x48a5…a903backed Bucks	49c	800$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks	49c	792$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.08	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb295…e601backed Pacers	52c	674.23$351 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$323.63	42	59.5%25 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc439…1308backed Bucks	49c	602.04$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.12per pick	47cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8354…b291backed Pacers	52c	601.92$313 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288.92	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+42.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Bucks	49c	599.99$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.99	267	55.8%149 W · 118 L	+12.9wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea0d…821cbacked Pacers	51c	588.24$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288.24	66	42.4%28 W · 38 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Bucks	48c	555.55$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.88	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc62c…2c44backed Bucks	49c	408.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	110	44.5%49 W · 61 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc57…4148backed Bucks	49c	408.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d03…1e95backed Bucks	50c	382$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fc9…e444backed Pacers	53c	377.36$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.36	51	33.3%17 W · 34 L	-6.0wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xba47…c25dbacked Bucks	49c	300$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcfcf…96aebacked Pacers	54c	300$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Bucks	49c	300$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	409	47.7%195 W · 214 L	-13.0wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Bucks	48c	267.52$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.04	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Pacers	52c	250$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	956	41.7%399 W · 557 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed Pacers	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	197	41.6%82 W · 115 L	-4.9wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a9…66a1backed Bucks	49c	181.63$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	-4.4wins	-0.17per pick	40cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Pacers	55c	167$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.15	381	51.2%195 W · 186 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Bucks	47c	157.62$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.08	547	47.5%260 W · 287 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2791…2791backed Bucks	47c	150$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.5	35	60%21 W · 14 L	+4.1wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed Bucks	48c	150$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	123	42.3%52 W · 71 L	-6.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2816…0730backed Bucks	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	110	28.2%31 W · 79 L	-9.1wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x27ca…2c36backed Pacers	53c	88.68$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.68	67	52.2%35 W · 32 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2738…6412backed Bucks	50c	80$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a4f…c4f2backed Pacers	52c	72$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.56	320	41.9%134 W · 186 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf549…2ecbbacked Bucks	50c	66.96$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.48	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.8wins	-0.59per pick	59cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f57…0319backed Bucks	49c	51.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf36…94e8backed Pacers	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	60cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73b9…3ba6backed Bucks	49c	32.64$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.99	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f1…6349backed Bucks	49c	30.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	173	50.9%88 W · 85 L	-6.7wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01fa…c2edbacked Pacers	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	174	47.7%83 W · 91 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x787c…7ae2backed Pacers	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	89	57.3%51 W · 38 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Bucks	49c	26$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.74	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Bucks	52c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9e4…3fd9backed Bucks	49c	24.49$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c87…70d5backed Bucks	49c	20.92$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.25	346	44.2%153 W · 193 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2022…d0dcbacked Bucks	49c	20.41$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.18per pick	52cpaid	-32%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3cf…3183backed Pacers	54c	19.07$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.77	70	52.9%37 W · 33 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bucks (-6.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event