NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f0bdeba4b1c8fa081a060493c614676f141b316cfa40dd068ba9c60e68054e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe275…b95cbacked Under | 50c | 40,000$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5544…0fadbacked Over | 50c | 40,000$20,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Over | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 246 | 50%123 W · 123 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 13,588$6,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,788.33 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Under | 50c | 9,382$4,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,690.98 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Over | 49c | 7,777$3,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,810.7 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 49c | 5,902$2,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,983.1 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…5696backed Over | 51c | 4,450$2,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,269.5 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,039.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 50c | 2,064$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.27 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 50c | 1,931$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.46 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa216…179bbacked Over | 50c | 1,771$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 51c | 1,451$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 1,410$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.29 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…ed47backed Over | 51c | 979.88$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.74 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 51c | 944$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 812.98$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.62 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Under | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 667 | 44.5%297 W · 370 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f43…3ec1backed Over | 51c | 620.97$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942c…fb3abacked Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 51c | 564.7$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.69 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2b…ddcfbacked Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x874d…ab39backed Over | 50c | 368$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…4969backed Under | 51c | 366.67$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c4…9a6ebacked Under | 51c | 320$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…fa75backed Over | 51c | 319.61$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd47b…ef7ebacked Over | 50c | 319$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Under | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 50c | 207.84$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.38 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…40d2backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 52c | 169$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 50c | 164$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 142$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 49c | 140$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…7e3ebacked Over | 51c | 139.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -11.2wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 49c | 111$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Over | 51c | 110$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…eb8dbacked Over | 52c | 109.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Under | 50c | 106$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55f7…23a3backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd479…2692backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…71dbbacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08dd…55b0backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cdb0backed Under | 51c | 92.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…bd7fbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf4…ee82backed Under | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6114…1433backed Over | 50c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…3a67backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5this page
- Bucks vs. PacersBucks won
- Bucks vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Bucks vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Bucks (-5.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Bucks (-6.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.