NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bucks (-5.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51ab1dd7b0d9bdbd2c5e47aa85890302a1d2f5d9988e011ba0d3a835b32e59be

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Pacersof Bucks, Pacers
Resolved: Nov 3, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $12,121
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $12,252

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,121 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf9cf…9527backed Bucks	56c	6,006$3,333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,333.19	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-2.1wins	-0.23per pick	57cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pacers	45c	5,760$2,606 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,153.88	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers	46c	1,304$597 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$707.2	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Pacers	45c	640.59$287 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$353.73	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pacers	46c	470$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254.2	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Bucks	54c	411.11$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222	390	51.5%201 W · 189 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Bucks	54c	360.32$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.79	710	52.1%370 W · 340 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pacers	46c	285.19$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Pacers	46c	226.11$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.1	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb22…ce57backed Bucks	53c	210.19$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	34	50%17 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Bucks	54c	201$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.54	361	48.5%175 W · 186 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0bd…0588backed Bucks	53c	199.43$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.7	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc62c…2c44backed Bucks	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	110	44.5%49 W · 61 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Pacers	47c	150$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.5	85	41.2%35 W · 50 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Pacers	46c	142.75$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.08	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6941…efd5backed Bucks	56c	107.14$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	50	40%20 W · 30 L	-7.1wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bucks	49c	105$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.75	1,113	41.6%463 W · 650 L	-10.0wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Bucks	54c	100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	378	50.3%190 W · 188 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Pacers	44c	100$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56	418	48.3%202 W · 216 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69c4…09a3backed Bucks	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	102	50%51 W · 51 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df8…5332backed Bucks	54c	90.56$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.9	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	35cpaid	-45%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Pacers	49c	75$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.25	471	44.2%208 W · 263 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7881…5c15backed Bucks	54c	75$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-3.3wins	-0.26per pick	57cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x357b…7b85backed Bucks	56c	73.21$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa53f…b4c8backed Bucks	55c	61.05$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.58	37	62.2%23 W · 14 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+17%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Pacers	46c	60.19$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.5	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Bucks	54c	52$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.08	905	60.8%550 W · 355 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6cc…18cebacked Bucks	56c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	83	44.6%37 W · 46 L	-4.2wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Pacers	46c	40.89$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.1	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb052…7adabacked Bucks	56c	40$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	290	46.9%136 W · 154 L	-9.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Pacers	55c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	381	51.2%195 W · 186 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbed1…331bbacked Bucks	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08cc…da60backed Bucks	54c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	82	48.8%40 W · 42 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc538…484abacked Bucks	54c	28$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.12	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Pacers	54c	22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.13	597	43.6%260 W · 337 L	-11.9wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe714…c180backed Bucks	56c	21.43$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.16per pick	58cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bucks (-5.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event