College Football · resolved market
Notre Dame vs. Arkansas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2943049935e7eb0df6027b7141113a6fe91a5bf288906751fdf9bec4344cf81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Notre Dameof Notre Dame, Arkansas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $154,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Notre Dame | 66c | 25,041$16,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,630.34 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Arkansas | 34c | 14,444$4,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,910.96 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Arkansas | 35c | 8,986$3,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,129.63 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked Notre Dame | 69c | 8,063$5,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,463.33 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…ad45backed Arkansas | 36c | 8,000$2,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,880 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Notre Dame | 66c | 6,041$3,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,055.77 | 292 | 49%143 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Arkansas | 35c | 5,700$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Arkansas | 34c | 5,000$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Arkansas | 36c | 4,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.99 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb8…536fbacked Notre Dame | 64c | 3,906$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Notre Dame | 64c | 3,274$2,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.57 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Arkansas | 37c | 1,931$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.99 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Notre Dame | 71c | 1,674$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.93 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Arkansas | 36c | 1,624$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.6 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Arkansas | 36c | 1,612$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.48 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Notre Dame | 65c | 1,596$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.09 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Arkansas | 37c | 1,500$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Notre Dame | 63c | 1,480$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.52 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Notre Dame | 64c | 1,336$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.94 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Arkansas | 31c | 1,310$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.97 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Notre Dame | 66c | 1,285$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.53 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Arkansas | 35c | 1,248$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.96 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Arkansas | 37c | 1,020$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.26 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8e…0f12backed Notre Dame | 64c | 880$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Arkansas | 8c | 862.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Arkansas | 33c | 855.03$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.01 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Notre Dame | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Arkansas | 35c | 768$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.9 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Arkansas | 35c | 699.09$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.68 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Notre Dame | 57c | 550.71$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.81 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed Notre Dame | 63c | 525.08$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.28 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Arkansas | 36c | 515.22$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.04 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Arkansas | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Arkansas | 36c | 488.89$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Notre Dame | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Arkansas | 31c | 433.54$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Arkansas | 16c | 420$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Arkansas | 31c | 384.83$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Notre Dame | 63c | 358.51$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.65 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Arkansas | 22c | 320$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…a572backed Notre Dame | 65c | 305.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.36 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Notre Dame | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb790…8389backed Notre Dame | 63c | 287.3$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.3 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa637…bacfbacked Notre Dame | 64c | 254.13$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Arkansas | 26c | 250$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cae…f15ebacked Notre Dame | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked Arkansas | 34c | 227$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Notre Dame | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Arkansas | 36c | 189$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Arkansas | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Arkansas | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6a…857abacked Arkansas | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Notre Dame | 75c | 112.77$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…4992backed Notre Dame | 65c | 112.31$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.7wins | -0.38per pick | 51cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…b23bbacked Arkansas | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Arkansas | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Arkansas | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…1d08backed Notre Dame | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Arkansas | 36c | 97.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Notre Dame | 76c | 96.74$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arkansas | 30c | 96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x231a…2597backed Notre Dame | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a03…47c1backed Notre Dame | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b5…8763backed Arkansas | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0167…0d88backed Arkansas | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Arkansas | 35c | 46.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…e43bbacked Notre Dame | 66c | 45.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed Notre Dame | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4055…8449backed Notre Dame | 64c | 34.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7869…61d8backed Notre Dame | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…f458backed Arkansas | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Notre Dame | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Notre Dame | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228a…b678backed Notre Dame | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Notre Dame vs. Arkansasthis page
- O/U 64.5Over won
- Spread: Notre Dame (-5.5)Notre Dame won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.