South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2b12d8c0d1fa755e9f885dbc8679376efadaaa452f15be7577bb48370782ce8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 39c | 6,889$2,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,659.68 | 5,821 | 45.4%2,642 W · 3,179 L | +97.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Yes | 10c | 3,481$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,149.96 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 76c | 2,341$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,782.56 | 2,598 | 39.3%1,022 W · 1,576 L | -26.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…18cdbacked Yes | 67c | 2,005$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.69 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca7…39dbbacked Yes | 73c | 1,370$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc73b…f046backed No | 49c | 1,076$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.95 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Yes | 64c | 1,072$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 46c | 872.5$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.95 | 1,557 | 45.1%702 W · 855 L | +19.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 731.25$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.31 | 2,004 | 51.3%1,028 W · 976 L | +41.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 18c | 549.94$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.94 | 2,365 | 34.5%817 W · 1,548 L | -30.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 7c | 514.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.5 | 1,502 | 45.9%690 W · 812 L | -18.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 73c | 482.29$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.17 | 1,323 | 42.8%566 W · 757 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf755…cea5backed Yes | 74c | 472.97$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0c…10f2backed Yes | 20c | 350$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 76c | 345$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.2 | 288 | 55.2%159 W · 129 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 22c | 333.32$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.66 | 1,678 | 50.8%853 W · 825 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce5…17f9backed Yes | 20c | 315$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 20c | 278.66$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.96 | 1,305 | 53.6%700 W · 605 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4a…db2bbacked Yes | 66c | 208$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 66c | 190$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 278 | 42.4%118 W · 160 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 19c | 187.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.64 | 1,702 | 52%885 W · 817 L | +21.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes | 67c | 180.04$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed No | 53c | 144.62$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 19c | 120.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.79 | 813 | 56.5%459 W · 354 L | +25.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0640…5ea2backed Yes | 68c | 100.14$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1b…7217backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 440 | 61.6%271 W · 169 L | +23.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0939…39cfbacked Yes | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x673d…8623backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes | 18c | 62.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 511 | 56.2%287 W · 224 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…9ce5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 80c | 35.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 254 | 53.1%135 W · 119 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +16%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa29c…0a3dbacked Yes | 68c | 27.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…a57cbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…b695backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe723…7cb1backed Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 69c | 21.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785a…4166backed Yes | 72c | 20.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f9…fcc3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca0d…2602backed Yes | 75c | 18.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…1773backed No | 74c | 17.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe end in a draw?this page
- Will CA River Plate win on 2026-08-19?No won
- Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-08-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.