NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Magic: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2ed70fd6d4765298dda5d062b3125ac31862b2f0ac6579165254ab402fd1804
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Over | 45c | 40,277$18,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,325.7 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 23,123$12,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,524.02 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 55c | 5,899$3,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,670.77 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 51c | 2,446$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.48 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Under | 55c | 2,445$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.25 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 48c | 2,041$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.68 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 55c | 1,600$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 54c | 1,055$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.3 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 735.75$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.02 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 53c | 671.05$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.39 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 53c | 475$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.25 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 26c | 431.6$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.4 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 41c | 328.81$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.81 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…0927backed Under | 55c | 227.27$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 188 | 52.7%99 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 30c | 220$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 59c | 216.95$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.95 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 38c | 170$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9164…f32bbacked Under | 59c | 168.34$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb79b…cf30backed Under | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 48c | 115.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Under | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 59c | 111.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4137…586cbacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 470 | 43.8%206 W · 264 L | -22.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…57c8backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…7be4backed Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Over | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 46c | 98.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 53c | 84.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…df87backed Under | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4865…904dbacked Under | 56c | 65.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 243 | 63.8%155 W · 88 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f03…766dbacked Under | 57c | 43.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde5d…e2d7backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a5…fb44backed Under | 68c | 27.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 125 | 61.6%77 W · 48 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 45c | 26.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f4…5bc0backed Over | 49c | 26.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Under | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Under | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Magic: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-0.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. MagicCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Magic: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Magic: O/U 226.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Under won
- De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Sam Merrill: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.