NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Magic: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9165964c55b7952e6f1222b85fbf9d27472fc3dddd4fcd6b58132a6a3528a97a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $150,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Over | 49c | 61,043$30,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,209.48 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 28,940$14,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,253.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Under | 52c | 26,817$13,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,978.69 | 197 | 54.3%107 W · 90 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Under | 53c | 8,763$4,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,118.49 | 458 | 50.4%231 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 50c | 5,391$2,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,684.33 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Over | 49c | 4,974$2,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,437.48 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Under | 53c | 4,747$2,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,231.09 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…2f53backed Over | 48c | 4,167$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Over | 48c | 3,125$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 564 | 53.9%304 W · 260 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…b413backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 48c | 2,650$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.2 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Over | 50c | 2,650$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 55c | 2,221$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 50c | 1,961$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.36 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 1,574$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.32 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 50c | 1,500$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.5 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Over | 47c | 1,133$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.58 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 47c | 1,040$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.8 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Under | 48c | 989.58$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.58 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 45c | 948.81$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.33 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Under | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Over | 48c | 689.23$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.83 | 398 | 42.5%169 W · 229 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 660.67$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.83 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 47c | 612$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.64 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 48c | 481$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.12 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 52c | 470$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.6 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 431.99$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.05 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Over | 49c | 399.99$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 16c | 378.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde46…a7afbacked Over | 52c | 315.38$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 47c | 282.04$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.94 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 250.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 209.73$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 41c | 154.34$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 124.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…b497backed Over | 48c | 118.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…3111backed Over | 49c | 113.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 243 | 32.9%80 W · 163 L | -22.7wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde5d…e2d7backed Over | 49c | 101.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ed…e29fbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Over | 48c | 98.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…0a6abacked Under | 52c | 98.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 50c | 85.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Over | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 165 | 49.7%82 W · 83 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…9ef1backed Under | 54c | 58.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Under | 51c | 53.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 311 | 55%171 W · 140 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c54…da2cbacked Under | 54c | 50.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 54c | 46.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1285…2d0fbacked Under | 54c | 37.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd3…772abacked Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over | 48c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Over | 48c | 23.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Under | 50c | 22.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…ae66backed Under | 55c | 22.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…74bcbacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…32ddbacked Under | 54c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Magic: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-0.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. MagicCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Magic: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Magic: O/U 226.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Under won
- De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Sam Merrill: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.