NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Magic: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38c849bf6502150dd31d56e9df9c0e29bf9095cf978cc430b94fb1a9b938cd68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Over | 49c | 71,429$35,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,000 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Under | 51c | 60,000$30,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,399.99 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Under | 51c | 20,825$10,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,204.25 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Over | 49c | 8,163$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 269 | 49.1%132 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Over | 50c | 6,767$3,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,356.8 | 132 | 39.4%52 W · 80 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Under | 51c | 6,200$3,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,038 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Under | 51c | 5,365$2,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,629.07 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a43…565fbacked Under | 51c | 3,824$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,873.53 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 49c | 2,771$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.68 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 2,698$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 1,710$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.36 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 51c | 1,700$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.83 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Over | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 49c | 1,086$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.14 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 51c | 823.53$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 10c | 642.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 170 | 35.9%61 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Under | 52c | 305$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.4 | 206 | 51%105 W · 101 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 48c | 209.97$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…a520backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Over | 8c | 175.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e4…00bdbacked Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Over | 49c | 123.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Under | 52c | 121.61$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Under | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 12c | 101.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…0363backed Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…df87backed Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 49c | 99.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Over | 19c | 89.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…340fbacked Under | 52c | 87.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Over | 49c | 83.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 43c | 80.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e2…3000backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Over | 50c | 78.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…d630backed Over | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Under | 52c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 49c | 39.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Under | 52c | 34.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4b…881fbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -6.2wins | -0.36per pick | 54cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a5…567dbacked Under | 52c | 29.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 163 | 50.9%83 W · 80 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c54…da2cbacked Under | 53c | 24.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Under | 52c | 23.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Over | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Magic: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-0.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. MagicCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Magic: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Under won
- De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Sam Merrill: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.