NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x037d6154327bd898cd20c072bfb3fea80b036d608f9ec3df3ef4b9df8671cfe6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Cavaliers | 49c | 61,506$29,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,579.77 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 52c | 29,283$15,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,127.05 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4ac8backed Magic | 54c | 5,580$3,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,013 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 51c | 5,355$2,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,716.96 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Magic | 51c | 3,941$2,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019.48 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cavaliers | 49c | 3,180$1,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,623.85 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbc…ce06backed Cavaliers | 46c | 3,076$1,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf862…4e8ebacked Magic | 54c | 3,070$1,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,657.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Magic | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.79 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Magic | 54c | 2,691$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,453.34 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Magic | 51c | 2,510$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.1 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…7961backed Magic | 50c | 2,083$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.54 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…ad46backed Cavaliers | 50c | 2,083$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.54 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Magic | 53c | 1,865$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.93 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Magic | 50c | 1,826$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.07 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Magic | 52c | 1,800$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Magic | 49c | 1,481$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.63 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Magic | 53c | 1,321$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Magic | 51c | 1,137$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.3 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f70…f650backed Cavaliers | 46c | 1,020$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Magic | 51c | 1,005$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.22 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Magic | 46c | 922$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.12 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Magic | 54c | 919.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 359 | 42.1%151 W · 208 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Magic | 50c | 900$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Magic | 52c | 781.65$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.23 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0177…3854backed Magic | 54c | 450$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Magic | 58c | 345.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Magic | 53c | 303.23$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.71 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9517…ed2abacked Magic | 54c | 290$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…64dbbacked Magic | 54c | 280$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3860…0efcbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 277$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.81 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Magic | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Magic | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Magic | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed Cavaliers | 46c | 139.93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 131.86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 126.71$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Magic | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde5d…e2d7backed Cavaliers | 48c | 103.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Magic | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Magic | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…2be7backed Magic | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Magic | 49c | 68.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Magic | 51c | 68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Magic | 51c | 58.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 46c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…ef9abacked Cavaliers | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -10.1wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -30%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…1bfabacked Cavaliers | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb15d…d581backed Cavaliers | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x082f…b13bbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cavaliers | 46c | 43.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…46f8backed Cavaliers | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6a…e018backed Cavaliers | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Magic | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cavaliers | 47c | 38.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Magic | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed Cavaliers | 51c | 35.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Magic | 51c | 35.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Magic | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Cavaliers | 47c | 27.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Magic | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2328…e304backed Cavaliers | 46c | 21.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -8.6wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Cavaliers | 46c | 21.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-0.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. MagicCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Magic: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Magic: O/U 226.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Under won
- De'Andre Hunter: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Sam Merrill: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.