TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Resilienceof Team Refuser, Team Resilience
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,727
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,369

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,727 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Resilience64c8,128$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,928.071,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Refuser38c4,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed Team Refuser29c3,000$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.9947646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Team Refuser36c2,891$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.1941056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Team Resilience66c1,603$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.231248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Resilience64c1,250$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.51,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Team Refuser30c1,054$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.2748053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked Team Refuser17c1,030$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.7314943%64 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Team Refuser1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Team Refuser33c999.99$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33069835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Team Refuser33c916.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked Team Resilience70c854.31$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.3332756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Team Resilience73c819.96$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.153764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Team Refuser44c741.62$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.2429243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc48…24c3backed Team Refuser32c652.3$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.241637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-37%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7126…bfcbbacked Team Refuser30c520.2$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15711249.1%55 W · 57 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Resilience76c509.36$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.251,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Team Refuser24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12036547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09c1…0ddfbacked Team Refuser43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2151729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked Team Resilience76c500$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.533867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe84a…02febacked Team Refuser43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2151637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Team Resilience77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11551364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x611a…e171backed Team Resilience69c499.99$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1555853.4%31 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Team Refuser37c476.49$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.8553844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed Team Refuser10c455.26$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.532524%6 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ca2…088ebacked Team Refuser11c447.33$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.214742.6%20 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57e1…c97fbacked Team Refuser40c411.99$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.82846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x952a…bdc8backed Team Resilience67c370.87$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.398469%58 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Team Refuser7c354.6$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9419440.7%79 W · 115 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Team Resilience67c350.52$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.5296245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x435f…2de6backed Team Resilience77c340$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.23658.3%21 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Team Refuser30c318.55$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0158746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5615…df5ebacked Team Refuser12c299.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Team Resilience69c286.19$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4652046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Team Resilience68c275.86$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.0554246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7437…e1e9backed Team Refuser37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005135.3%18 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74e9…7269backed Team Refuser28c270$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.74717%8 W · 39 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88aa…2f5ebacked Team Resilience63c264.93$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.023455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Team Refuser38c239.47$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9112740.2%51 W · 76 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Team Refuser37c234.64$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.821,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Team Resilience63c234.54$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.781,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Team Resilience69c209.29$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9177256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked Team Refuser11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2228336.4%103 W · 180 L+1.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Team Refuser16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3225639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Team Refuser11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Team Refuser11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2225351.4%130 W · 123 L+23.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed Team Refuser24c199.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4753758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0af3…8598backed Team Refuser26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504136.6%15 W · 26 L-4.4wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9044…dcedbacked Team Resilience71c189.99$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.11346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Team Refuser38c184.21$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7057735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcef5…3881backed Team Refuser43c163.16$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.16540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Team Resilience75c160.64$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4130356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f40…c8ffbacked Team Refuser18c160$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4731052.6%163 W · 147 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Team Resilience68c146.6$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.213467.6%23 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Team Refuser33c144.93$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2956945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Team Refuser22c144.44$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.778516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Refuser26c134.32$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.231,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcef…fd7fbacked Team Refuser42c132.75$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.293852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa091…f1c1backed Team Refuser33c128$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.242653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x454a…0f14backed Team Resilience63c127.81$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.292842.9%12 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-29.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Team Resilience67c101.43$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.465863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf5f…2184backed Team Refuser41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0e0…016abacked Team Refuser43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-44.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ec9…1873backed Team Refuser18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1819839.4%78 W · 120 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf98b…57bbbacked Team Resilience66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.941864.1%268 W · 150 L+17.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8106…bd36backed Team Resilience68c92.46$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.468056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ce8…75f2backed Team Resilience69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4612132.2%39 W · 82 L-11.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x48ba…d81dbacked Team Refuser31c68.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0956343.9%247 W · 316 L-1.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97a8…13a5backed Team Resilience76c65.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.791957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2d0…bf0cbacked Team Refuser28c65.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.362825%7 W · 21 L-5.4wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-46%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed Team Resilience66c63.64$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.646053.3%32 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7020…d655backed Team Refuser33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015150.3%76 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e4a…a45fbacked Team Refuser26c57.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+30.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Team Refuser39c57.23$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.449952.5%52 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd6…d4a0backed Team Refuser41c53.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.141442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6da3…d94abacked Team Refuser30c53.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe522…8c25backed Team Refuser33c50.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.382055%11 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca08…08bdbacked Team Resilience70c49.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.998851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Refuser34c49.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.991,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91f8…71e0backed Team Refuser40c49.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.682236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…a117backed Team Resilience77c44.55$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.251711.8%2 W · 15 L-5.4wins-0.32per pick43cpaid-82.9%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x1508…0648backed Team Refuser41c43.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Team Resilience62c43.45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5781345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Team Resilience78c43$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2617443.1%75 W · 99 L-8.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab05…52e9backed Team Resilience68c41$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1317448.9%85 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04ed…172abacked Team Refuser25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1032252.5%169 W · 153 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e63…9e38backed Team Refuser25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1034561.2%211 W · 134 L+17.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Team Refuser30c38.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6140442.3%171 W · 233 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Team Refuser33c34.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4938244.5%170 W · 212 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f46…cddbbacked Team Refuser35c31.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1124052.1%125 W · 115 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0814…875abacked Team Resilience65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.772958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb69f…25bdbacked Team Refuser38c28.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110258.8%60 W · 42 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc37d…e586backed Team Resilience68c28.26$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0438759.4%230 W · 157 L+26.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c1d…a420backed Team Resilience61c27.85$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.861457.1%8 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Resilience76c27.63$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6391356.1%512 W · 401 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed Team Resilience56c26.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.794557.8%26 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa938…7abdbacked Team Resilience61c26.64$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.281070%7 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Team Resilience68c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7b7…3852backed Team Resilience63c24.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92181%17 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick69cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x212a…a758backed Team Resilience67c23.11$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.63540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.