TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Resilienceof Team Refuser, Team Resilience
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$56,286
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,159

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,286 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Resilience62c11,399$7,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,382.751,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Team Refuser40c6,718$2,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,718.4341056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed Team Refuser23c3,495$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.6937655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Refuser36c3,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.9989440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Refuser32c2,113$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.412,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Resilience68c1,470$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.3586659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Refuser13c1,429$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.291,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Team Refuser42c1,353$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.4229243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Refuser39c1,297$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.491,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Refuser5c1,291$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.851,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Team Resilience79c1,208$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.9154246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Team Refuser4c1,100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4151544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Refuser29c1,064$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.541,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Team Refuser1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Team Resilience63c999.99$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37050769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Team Refuser31c938.03$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.061,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed Team Refuser29c859.99$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.48847.7%42 W · 46 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked Team Refuser23c844.08$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.2232756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Team Refuser34c843.66$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.1457449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Team Resilience62c804.43$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.4448053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x703e…9828backed Team Refuser4c714.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257437.8%28 W · 46 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Team Resilience66c672.4$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.5451364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed Team Resilience68c612.78$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.142524%6 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Team Resilience63c556.17$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.3431248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked Team Refuser24c549.41$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.9214943%64 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Team Refuser37c530$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19653844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf3…9567backed Team Resilience71c530$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x611a…e171backed Team Resilience65c517.71$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.25853.4%31 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Team Resilience65c515.36$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.3777256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Team Refuser26c499.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13036547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Refuser32c495.81$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.5796645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x952a…bdc8backed Team Resilience59c423.79$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.758469%58 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Team Refuser3c400.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3534041.2%140 W · 200 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Team Refuser34c390.51$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.491,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9499…d5bbbacked Team Refuser26c384.24$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Team Refuser38c367.09$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14057735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0af3…8598backed Team Refuser35c357.14$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1254136.6%15 W · 26 L-4.4wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Team Refuser29c306.32$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.051,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e63…9e38backed Team Refuser40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12034561.2%211 W · 134 L+17.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9044…dcedbacked Team Resilience60c273.42$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.81346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Refuser38c250$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Team Refuser9c237.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0189238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Team Resilience59c237.22$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.2652046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Team Resilience78c203.88$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1156945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9311…e731backed Team Resilience69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf11e…3bc1backed Team Refuser30c196.51$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9510741.1%44 W · 63 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Team Refuser37c194.59$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7273554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x48ba…d81dbacked Team Refuser24c184.31$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0856343.9%247 W · 316 L-1.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb6b…604ebacked Team Refuser18c180$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.439351.1%201 W · 192 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Team Refuser12c170$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.469132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Team Resilience59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.493467.6%23 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f46…cddbbacked Team Resilience69c166.61$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7824052.1%125 W · 115 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7d8…a577backed Team Refuser37c160.27$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid+27.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed Team Resilience64c157$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5223746.8%111 W · 126 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5615…df5ebacked Team Refuser40c150$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b13…37dbbacked Team Resilience63c149.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.53452.9%18 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74e9…7269backed Team Resilience68c149$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.684717%8 W · 39 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Team Resilience77c134$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5521540.9%88 W · 127 L-12.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d16…e42bbacked Team Refuser38c132.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502250%11 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Team Refuser31c128.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7628341%116 W · 167 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe187…a69cbacked Team Resilience80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254367.4%29 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Team Resilience64c119.72$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1778516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x2842…e81bbacked Team Resilience60c113$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.22040%8 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661e…48efbacked Team Refuser38c109.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ce8…75f2backed Team Resilience60c108.33$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3312132.2%39 W · 82 L-11.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xec54…c7b2backed Team Refuser32c103$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9615650.6%79 W · 77 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Team Resilience64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3665863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Resilience61c99.99$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.41,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Team Refuser40c99.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9696245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7020…d655backed Team Refuser38c89.47$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3415150.3%76 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x26c2…0cdfbacked Team Refuser25c83.4$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1718652.2%97 W · 89 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Team Refuser39c68.26$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3491553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Team Resilience78c58.88$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9766545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Team Resilience77c51$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7864547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Team Resilience55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.51546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xceea…ec81backed Team Resilience64c46.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8812073.3%88 W · 32 L+11.2wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x74aa…2c3fbacked Team Refuser44c44.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.642828.6%8 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-48.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x97a8…13a5backed Team Resilience68c44.19$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.191957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a91…736bbacked Team Resilience68c44.12$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.127375.3%55 W · 18 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf815…4f3ebacked Team Resilience63c42.61$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6127466.4%182 W · 92 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Team Resilience55c42.2$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.99850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe522…8c25backed Team Resilience62c41.7$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.662055%11 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b32…5146backed Team Refuser41c40.24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.525356.5%143 W · 110 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cbf…af49backed Team Refuser40c38.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.45850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Team Resilience66c37.94$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.938244.5%170 W · 212 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Team Refuser34c36.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4253764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ca2…1798backed Team Resilience72c35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.76271%44 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7643…fb95backed Team Resilience65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.52259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x04ed…172abacked Team Refuser34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.232252.5%169 W · 153 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed39…d761backed Team Refuser40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa099…b1d4backed Team Resilience68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.412564%16 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb69f…25bdbacked Team Resilience69c29.01$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0110258.8%60 W · 42 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1f6…0981backed Team Resilience63c25.95$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.679159.3%54 W · 37 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7b7…3852backed Team Resilience62c23.82$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.052181%17 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick69cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8cc6…85f2backed Team Resilience66c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.482755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x498b…ca86backed Team Resilience70c21.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4310763.6%68 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5618…f2c0backed Team Resilience66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.82055%11 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Team Resilience63c16.64$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.281345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.