Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3ad7ad0c85cfb204dd0e056104e22d6335094e69f50670318607b2617f45369
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 525.92$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.28 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 26c | 460.55$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.89 | 608 | 22.9%139 W · 469 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 441.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 30c | 377.27$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.77 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 3c | 350.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,440 | 27.8%400 W · 1,040 L | +75.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 272.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 259.84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 28c | 243.22$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 209.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 32c | 145.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 11c | 142.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 120.5$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 114.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 28c | 111.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 87.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 27c | 84.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 80.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 65.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…66b4backed No | 72c | 58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 26c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 53.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 50.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 1,612 | 60.4%974 W · 638 L | -22.0wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 28c | 43.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 797 | 47.1%375 W · 422 L | -29.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 73c | 41.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 2,422 | 35.5%860 W · 1,562 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 916 | 55.9%512 W · 404 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 71c | 39.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 513 | 74.1%380 W · 133 L | +34.3wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 70c | 24.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 23.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7f…8282backed No | 71c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf72…2a2cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 305 | 52.5%160 W · 145 L | -31.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 76c | 19.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 653 | 58.8%384 W · 269 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 19.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 70c | 17.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1,266 | 52.8%668 W · 598 L | -14.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.