Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd633b354fb78b3ea27c5760774157d6df46e120486ad25b15022e5ca03ba9869
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6254…1e8cbacked No | 0c | 3,123$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 78c | 891.79$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.85 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 315.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 303.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 33c | 243.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.95 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 31c | 223.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.32 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 20c | 222.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 22c | 193.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.68 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 7c | 183.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 24c | 160.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.86 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 146.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 142.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 138.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 70c | 129.43$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 61c | 123.53$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 123.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 122.74$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 105$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 100.95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 89.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 33c | 89.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 20c | 89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 65c | 86.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x406b…dc4ebacked Yes | 77c | 85.77$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 28c | 81.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 18c | 80.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 61c | 75.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 67c | 75.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked No | 26c | 72.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 33c | 71.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 31c | 70.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 42c | 65.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 63.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 21c | 60.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 31c | 57.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 68c | 54.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 20c | 53.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 67c | 53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…afc3backed No | 46c | 52.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 60c | 52.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 23c | 52.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 26c | 51.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 25c | 50.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 74c | 50.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 23c | 49.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed Yes | 78c | 49.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 49.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 63c | 47.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…d0b1backed No | 24c | 45.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3811…736cbacked No | 80c | 45.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -4.4wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 40.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 44c | 33.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 79c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 46c | 28.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 61c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 67c | 25.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 74c | 22.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 49c | 20.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 20.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 75c | 18.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 75c | 16.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 75c | 16.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 75c | 15.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.