Movies · resolved market
Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd41fbb8e9050704d3a3e57d5929b1b5fbff501589756375ee4cd515566a5635b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x237b…cdecbacked No | 68c | 2,209$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.89 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b0…0822backed Yes | 71c | 1,376$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.86 | 19 | 94.7%18 W · 1 L | +5.6wins | +0.30per pick | 65cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 37c | 953.23$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.87 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 12c | 946$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.38 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 26c | 810.07$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.88 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb93f…9a79backed Yes | 7c | 607.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x223d…8ef3backed Yes | 51c | 603.53$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 14c | 500$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6100…1c0bbacked Yes | 9c | 496.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 11c | 301.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.23 | 329 | 24%79 W · 250 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 26c | 228$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…747cbacked No | 8c | 199.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.65 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +10.1wins | +0.42per pick | 37cpaid | +355.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 31c | 141.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 47c | 117.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked Yes | 19c | 111.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 103.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb80f…db5ebacked No | 38c | 103$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.36 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…f87cbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 17c | 94.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.68per pick | 12cpaid | +851%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 16c | 75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 36c | 74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 34c | 69.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…6237backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bd…c685backed No | 30c | 41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +237.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 33c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…6d0abacked No | 51c | 31.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked No | 57c | 26.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9eafbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…a64abacked Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…7ababacked No | 74c | 24.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc560…adbabacked No | 76c | 23.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Outlast: The Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.