Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4b5d8171b85c9646f2b544570bf6069b860391be371c3dceb51a1158f92451e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 19c | 1,200$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 534.4$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 25c | 334.21$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.06 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 3c | 324.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 17c | 245.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.21 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 243.7$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 200.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 184$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 25c | 172.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.25 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 72c | 139.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 57c | 132.49$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 130.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.01 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 125.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 60c | 110.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 109.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 108.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.59 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 27c | 100.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf14a…86d2backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 40c | 97.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 96.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 58c | 79.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 21c | 78.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 25c | 74.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 16c | 70.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 19c | 69.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 68.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 29c | 65.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 53c | 60.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 43c | 57.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1f…d278backed Yes | 27c | 56.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 56.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 73c | 49.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed Yes | 26c | 49.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 80c | 48.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 45.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 43.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 43c | 42.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 40c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked No | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 54c | 34.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 33.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db8…e377backed No | 75c | 31.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 74c | 30.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 75c | 26.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6221…708abacked No | 75c | 26.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.42per pick | 55cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 61c | 22.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 72c | 22.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 74c | 22.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f8…4a32backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 73c | 18.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 73c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 73c | 17.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 72c | 17.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.