Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x591c02a398623528e3510aa7d93e146fe9d54eb3faa1eb81d9a3c09411793517
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 1c | 5,574$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 45c | 766.56$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.84 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 67c | 739.19$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.77 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 39c | 466.38$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.6 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 424.21$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 29c | 400$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.2 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked No | 31c | 397.16$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.74 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 333.68$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.82 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 283.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…b3a8backed Yes | 77c | 243.88$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 243.7$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.57 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 59c | 233.16$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.28 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 25c | 229.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 62c | 225.42$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.77 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 215.54$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.22 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3b…1de5backed Yes | 78c | 200$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 39c | 160.09$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 28c | 155$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 153.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.79 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 67c | 148.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 18c | 138$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 65c | 129.23$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 120$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 45c | 111.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 58c | 110.03$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 61c | 108.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 69c | 100.86$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a9…2bb1backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 59c | 99.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 34c | 97.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 91.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 31c | 91.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 87.31$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 26c | 83.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 42c | 73.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 28c | 70.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 75c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69e9…a06ebacked Yes | 36c | 65.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 32c | 63.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 69c | 61.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 56c | 58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1f…d278backed Yes | 30c | 56.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 68c | 56.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 49c | 55.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 29c | 53.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 70c | 43.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf14a…86d2backed Yes | 37c | 41.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 40.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…c168backed No | 74c | 40.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 40c | 38.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 38.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 50c | 34.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 33c | 33.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 74c | 31.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…5305backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed Yes | 39c | 27.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed Yes | 79c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x214a…9cd3backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed Yes | 63c | 24.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 51c | 23.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 56c | 22.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked Yes | 52c | 21.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 56c | 20.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 20.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed Yes | 77c | 19.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…a8d7backed Yes | 67c | 19.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 56c | 17.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 17.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 60c | 16.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.