TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Magic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,410
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,935

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,410 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Magic27c7,571$2,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,077.6218146.4%84 W · 97 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Thunder74c6,554$4,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,683.6619149.7%95 W · 96 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Thunder74c3,580$2,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.1722458.9%132 W · 92 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c95…0a3abacked Thunder66c2,577$1,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.183542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03cd…9fdabacked Magic34c2,478$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.523158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fcf…48e1backed Magic3c2,361$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.831631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Magic27c2,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5401,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Magic24c1,556$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.6825536.9%94 W · 161 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ecb…c20fbacked Thunder75c1,129$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.57666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd64e…025bbacked Magic36c1,111$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.961330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Thunder64c1,066$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.7180146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb091…2017backed Magic28c1,012$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.4611755.6%65 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9587…cd8ebacked Magic40c776.3$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.875541.8%23 W · 32 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Magic2c575.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.181,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Magic23c574.2$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.4618235.7%65 W · 117 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Thunder63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18563555.6%353 W · 282 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x22c7…ca3ebacked Magic15c481.95$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.345735.1%20 W · 37 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Magic35c444.59$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.612138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Magic36c399.97$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.5960834.4%209 W · 399 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4487…08c6backed Magic28c398.56$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1133151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Thunder69c334.74$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.252536%9 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-36.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce6d…6130backed Thunder63c332.99$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.2116160.9%98 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc62f…f330backed Thunder67c300.47$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.471241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Magic35c299.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10569337.8%262 W · 431 L+2.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Thunder61c296.63$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.5916361.3%100 W · 63 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe063…8a04backed Magic10c268.7$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.318652.3%45 W · 41 L+8.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+16.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbe87…8b1dbacked Thunder62c266$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.081450%7 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb963…cefebacked Magic38c266$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.081435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Magic38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10089353%473 W · 420 L+1.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Magic39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,16654.4%634 W · 532 L+19.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Magic42c236.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016042.5%68 W · 92 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder68c203$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.156,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbcf…c26fbacked Magic12c196.6$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.173060%18 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Magic27c185.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.221741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x946f…e2e1backed Magic34c161.29$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.84955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Thunder62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.291,29044%567 W · 723 L+35.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcdc…15cabacked Magic37c154.05$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4917…16dabacked Thunder65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.852055%11 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb90…1917backed Magic38c150$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf30c…9c06backed Thunder67c149.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb5…6530backed Thunder69c145.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.622770.4%19 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x974f…637bbacked Magic25c140$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4775…c57dbacked Magic19c140$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262035%7 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-39.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9599…be88backed Magic16c135.68$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225022%11 W · 39 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b9…f7f4backed Magic34c134.47$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.72450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Magic32c129.37$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.565856.9%33 W · 25 L+8.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+39.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Thunder70c129$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.720248%97 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7b4…8a68backed Thunder68c125$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.551080%8 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+23.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Thunder73c112.35$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.121,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25cc…3601backed Thunder63c104$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.481145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Thunder63c103.48$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2948938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Thunder57c101.47$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.631,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Thunder67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336040%24 W · 36 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-34%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Magic35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Thunder63c95.24$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.244344.2%19 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeadf…e8c6backed Magic39c81.67$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.721471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+36%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4fa8…a9cabacked Thunder67c81.57$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.92683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+55.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x33dc…415ebacked Magic38c79.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3031631.6%100 W · 216 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Thunder63c79.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1790560.8%550 W · 355 L-2.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5021…a70dbacked Thunder67c78.15$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.79771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb04d…5db7backed Thunder63c75$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.971172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+28.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa4d8…0b58backed Magic36c74.17$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fb1…8e32backed Thunder67c73.52$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.26785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick57cpaid+66%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9eca…fc20backed Thunder75c73.33$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.334100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8db0…3583backed Thunder65c72.32$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.31955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71bb…9860backed Thunder63c71.81$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.571258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe2c…4ae8backed Thunder76c65.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.794562.2%28 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5479…ef16backed Magic24c65.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b0a…6b93backed Magic38c65.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.741050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Magic32c63.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2424330.9%75 W · 168 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3820…d669backed Thunder65c61.54$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.541861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce9c…0fe6backed Thunder66c60.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.61875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda17…f310backed Thunder67c60.49$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-50.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafbc…a8b5backed Magic35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015252%79 W · 73 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fb2…01b4backed Thunder63c55.56$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.562100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb9c…e776backed Magic38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Thunder64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1882440.4%333 W · 491 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked Magic34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7522939.7%91 W · 138 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d49…9601backed Magic25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb1b2…9790backed Thunder67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+30.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e62…4d07backed Magic36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182045%9 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba73…e538backed Magic26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13200%0 W · 20 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ee4…b575backed Magic41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203342.4%14 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa249…12fabacked Thunder68c44.12$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.122857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked Thunder73c41.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.137852.9%200 W · 178 L-20.8wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0fa3…072dbacked Thunder75c39.8$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.811352.2%59 W · 54 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Magic37c36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.322,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d86…a02bbacked Magic35c35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0fd…b056backed Thunder65c35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11ca…c3c9backed Thunder63c33.33$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.333461.8%21 W · 13 L+5.9wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+37.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfa9e…f0f9backed Thunder65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.772965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+32.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6771…b783backed Magic35c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.547258.3%42 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x818e…b787backed Thunder67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.852369.6%16 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x574e…7eb9backed Thunder67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.85560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x38b9…0218backed Thunder63c28.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Thunder64c28.28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.185650%28 W · 28 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4252…fd0fbacked Thunder73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x942d…d9afbacked Thunder66c27.16$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.162100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53a8…4b54backed Thunder79c25.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.18450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec89…3286backed Thunder65c24.62$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.622055%11 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.