TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 114.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,543
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,608

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,543 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb589…33d4backed Over5c3,000$150 inLost-$15035326.6%94 W · 259 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3da4…28d7backed Under44c347.32$153 inWon+$194.516657.2%95 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Over4c259.7$10 inLost-$10.3939018.2%71 W · 319 L+27.6wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x16e6…dc3dbacked Over56c178.75$100 inLost-$1003855.3%21 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb13f…5e0bbacked Over56c178.57$100 inLost-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Over55c54.55$30 inLost-$308850%44 W · 44 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Over27c51.69$14 inLost-$13.9876054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Under73c51.69$38 inWon+$13.9816036.3%58 W · 102 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Over27c51.59$14 inLost-$13.931,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Under73c50.06$37 inWon+$13.5262347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under45c44.55$20 inWon+$24.51,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under45c25$11 inWon+$13.753,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x346d…828fbacked Under47c24.31$11 inWon+$12.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ded…a1e5backed Under70c20$14 inWon+$6944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.