NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe09fdc08614cefa6cafd3182f0ae4c2e05a3433650151ffe695a07c66fca0bc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Cavaliers, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 4,974$2,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,708.24 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cavaliers | 57c | 4,500$2,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,565 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pacers | 44c | 3,166$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,772.96 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Cavaliers | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Pacers | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers | 43c | 1,618$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.03 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cavaliers | 57c | 1,046$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.01 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Cavaliers | 57c | 927$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.39 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…f95bbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 480$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.2 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Cavaliers | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pacers | 43c | 416.18$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.38 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 625 | 39.4%246 W · 379 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…a714backed Cavaliers | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Cavaliers | 57c | 348.42$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.6 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13f…5e0bbacked Cavaliers | 58c | 309.16$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522b…5160backed Cavaliers | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 43cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 57c | 183.25$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.42 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Cavaliers | 48c | 173.93$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.14 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Cavaliers | 57c | 173.39$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…32f7backed Cavaliers | 42c | 160$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pacers | 50c | 159.12$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.19 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Cavaliers | 57c | 108$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x552e…a856backed Pacers | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cavaliers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Cavaliers | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Cavaliers | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 156 | 57.7%90 W · 66 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…089abacked Cavaliers | 54c | 89.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Cavaliers | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Cavaliers | 57c | 84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cavaliers | 50c | 77.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…9707backed Cavaliers | 58c | 74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Cavaliers | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pacers | 52c | 55.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Cavaliers | 57c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4794…d6e5backed Cavaliers | 57c | 54.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pacers | 61c | 53.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…8059backed Cavaliers | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Pacers | 43c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb48…6ad1backed Cavaliers | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Pacers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04fa…526dbacked Cavaliers | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Pacers | 57c | 43.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa57…1e6bbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…b4f8backed Cavaliers | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…7351backed Cavaliers | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Pacers | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Cavaliers | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cavaliers | 40c | 30.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed Pacers | 43c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…581ebacked Pacers | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…1000backed Pacers | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1421…51d1backed Cavaliers | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…7556backed Cavaliers | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Pacers | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Pacers | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Pacers | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Pacers | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 245 | 52.7%129 W · 116 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Cavaliers | 56c | 21.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb203…8e45backed Cavaliers | 58c | 21.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x346d…828fbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 21.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Cavaliers | 52c | 19.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Pacers won
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Pacers won
- Cavaliers vs. PacersCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.