MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6683e3eb59f8e4291a4b329b6af8316b11425d2deea71af4295bfd39c1c64f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ae1…9fadbacked Under | 49c | 18,262$8,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,948.54 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 7,015$3,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,441.11 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 50c | 6,577$3,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,264.07 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 49c | 4,819$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,381.09 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 4,694$2,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,298.58 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…1fbebacked Over | 50c | 2,910$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 51c | 1,906$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.03 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 1,747$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.98 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 50c | 1,572$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.21 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 1,167$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.96 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 51c | 996.92$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.66 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 52c | 949.56$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.01 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Under | 50c | 750$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 16c | 630$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 48c | 610.7$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.61 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 442$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.17 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Over | 51c | 399.93$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.03 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 52c | 314.8$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.26 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 52c | 314.8$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.26 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 49c | 248$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.21 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 47c | 242.02$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.75 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 48c | 225.43$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.21 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 50c | 215.34$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.67 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 50c | 213.4$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.7 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0140…9510backed Over | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Under | 51c | 183.13$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.17 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ece…8786backed Over | 57c | 171.33$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 50c | 163.1$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Over | 49c | 162.31$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.53 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 158.55$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 46c | 155.31$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Over | 51c | 140.2$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 48c | 131.19$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.71 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 51c | 125.96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.15 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 47c | 121.93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2238…e069backed Under | 71c | 116.13$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 60c | 116.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62db…d58ebacked Under | 48c | 101.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 53c | 97.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Under | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…595cbacked Over | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 47c | 90.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 47c | 90.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 50c | 87.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 48c | 82.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 51c | 82.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…1bafbacked Under | 52c | 80.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 17c | 78.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 30c | 76.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 45c | 76.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 27c | 75.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 36c | 71.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 64c | 62.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 49c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Over | 24c | 55.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 50c | 49.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 49c | 49.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…4e76backed Over | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 46c | 41.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 54c | 40.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 45c | 39.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Under | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 51c | 38.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 57c | 36.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 46c | 35.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 50c | 34.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 51c | 29.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 54c | 28.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cc…3132backed Over | 50c | 26.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 50c | 25.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…ad71backed Under | 50c | 24.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Over | 51c | 23.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 49c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 59c | 21.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.