MLB · resolved market
Rays vs. Mets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd67443962795cec825b0388cd92d2d609036f95bb4b8a9b847bbe461ca17e4d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raysof Rays, Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9708…925bbacked Mets | 56c | 32,037$17,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,940.55 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Rays | 44c | 15,300$6,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,568 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Rays | 44c | 10,000$4,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,600 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Rays | 45c | 7,648$3,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,192.98 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Mets | 55c | 5,542$3,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060.95 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Rays | 44c | 3,773$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,112.93 | 389 | 49.1%191 W · 198 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Mets | 18c | 2,618$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.26 | 255 | 50.6%129 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Rays | 44c | 2,251$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.11 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6f…3838backed Rays | 69c | 2,034$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.11 | 405 | 47.4%192 W · 213 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Mets | 7c | 1,993$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Mets | 22c | 1,730$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.16 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked Rays | 73c | 1,453$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.06 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Mets | 61c | 1,182$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.22 | 177 | 54.8%97 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Rays | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Rays | 43c | 999.96$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.98 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59de…de22backed Mets | 43c | 994.18$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.21 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Rays | 73c | 882.97$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.31 | 549 | 41%225 W · 324 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Mets | 5c | 729.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 328 | 32.3%106 W · 222 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Rays | 43c | 679.85$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.52 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Rays | 44c | 519$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.64 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Rays | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Rays | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…7d12backed Mets | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Mets | 4c | 396.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 505 | 3.8%19 W · 486 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x766c…2377backed Mets | 8c | 379.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Rays | 43c | 371.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.67 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb26…94ddbacked Mets | 14c | 350$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 123 | 14.6%18 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Mets | 34c | 346.89$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.07 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…20d0backed Mets | 11c | 330.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 404 | 3.5%14 W · 390 L | -19.4wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4583…0bb9backed Mets | 57c | 301.75$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Rays | 43c | 298.51$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.15 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Mets | 41c | 253.26$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.26 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Rays | 45c | 234$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mets | 56c | 177.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…d651backed Mets | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mets | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…338abacked Mets | 63c | 154.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8b…754fbacked Mets | 20c | 152.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Rays | 43c | 149.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.98 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…f36cbacked Mets | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 229 | 58.5%134 W · 95 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Rays | 47c | 136$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Mets | 12c | 129.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9599…be88backed Mets | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 255 | 11.8%30 W · 225 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Mets | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x605a…c6debacked Rays | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 122 | 67.2%82 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc9…7e5bbacked Rays | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 189 | 51.3%97 W · 92 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Mets | 44c | 88.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Rays | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Mets | 54c | 86.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Mets | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Rays | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…366dbacked Rays | 44c | 76.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 1,078 | 46.3%499 W · 579 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rays | 43c | 73.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Rays | 43c | 71.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Mets | 42c | 64.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 1,203 | 48.5%584 W · 619 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Rays | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Mets | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 406 | 29.1%118 W · 288 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Rays | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +86%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…9d43backed Rays | 40c | 43.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 196 | 50.5%99 W · 97 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Rays | 44c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab9…5f7abacked Mets | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…a44ebacked Mets | 43c | 36.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Mets | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,388 | 55.1%765 W · 623 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb4…da3cbacked Mets | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Rays | 50c | 34.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc4…a6a9backed Mets | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e03…beafbacked Rays | 45c | 27.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Mets | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Mets | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.