Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 36°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6b8e935e584f4e5467b35a35998db13ed66efaf9ac3d471044bb1cacca373fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 32c | 722.76$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.05 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd351…b2d9backed No | 75c | 608.23$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.13 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 36c | 500.08$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.08 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 24c | 400$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.21 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 64c | 250$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…1a65backed Yes | 80c | 248.04$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed Yes | 38c | 239.45$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.46 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 42c | 236.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 234.31$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.01 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 35c | 219.04$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.96 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 187.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 181.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 180.45$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.35 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 80c | 167.68$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.12 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 63c | 164.97$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.33 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 160.25$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.15 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 63c | 160$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 157.19$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 57c | 148.11$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.78 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 148$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 142$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 21c | 137.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.1 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 64c | 131.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 42c | 124.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 31c | 123.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.87 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 120.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 117$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 40c | 116.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 113.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 56c | 112$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 79c | 108.53$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.58 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 105.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 104.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 42c | 102.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 90.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 89.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 20c | 88.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 88.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 86.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 48c | 81.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 74c | 67.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 57c | 60.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 59.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 26c | 57.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 55.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 65c | 54.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 28c | 50.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…700cbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 48.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 38c | 45.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 44.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf077…b207backed Yes | 33c | 42.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 41c | 42.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 76c | 42.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 41.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 28c | 41.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 40.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 59c | 39.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 33c | 39.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 36c | 39.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 73c | 38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 38c | 37.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 40c | 35.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a85…70f5backed Yes | 30c | 34.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 75c | 34.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 42c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…e95cbacked Yes | 63c | 32.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 64c | 29.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 49c | 28.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 40c | 27.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 60c | 27.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 42c | 26.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 69c | 22.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 47c | 21.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 21.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6527…c01fbacked Yes | 57c | 21.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 64c | 20.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a20…c1b5backed Yes | 62c | 19.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 66c | 15.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed No | 77c | 14.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 36°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 35°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 37°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 38°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 39°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.