Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 37°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf62dee0e743eadd9fe1126f185e63256bc1f261e5decf55c17a588bd6152800c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 33c | 464.46$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.46 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 48c | 273.39$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.29 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 33c | 241.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 217.34$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 214.33$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 199.05$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 49c | 186.8$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.61 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 180.78$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.83 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 170.2$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.98 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 57c | 164.8$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 49c | 148.45$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 142.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.83 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 48c | 124.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.54 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 58c | 122$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 121.41$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 119.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 45c | 112.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 43c | 101.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 99.52$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 96.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 58c | 93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 37c | 92.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 39c | 90.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 38c | 81.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 57c | 78.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 41c | 77.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 28c | 75.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 57c | 75.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 66c | 71.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 37c | 68.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…8ffbbacked Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 61.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 59.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 44c | 59.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 37c | 58.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 57.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 44c | 56.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 32c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 54.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 53.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe22e…074bbacked Yes | 40c | 50.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 56c | 49.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 28c | 44.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 59c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 55c | 43.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 66c | 39.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 55c | 39.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 60c | 39.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…d211backed Yes | 38c | 38.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…566cbacked Yes | 66c | 38.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 40c | 37.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 41c | 34.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 58c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 44c | 32.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 62c | 32.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 38c | 27.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 40c | 27.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 58c | 27.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 66c | 27.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 63c | 26.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8db…7cd0backed Yes | 62c | 24.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 43c | 23.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 55c | 23.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 59c | 23.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 22.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 60c | 20.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 55c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 66c | 19.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…43b9backed No | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 37°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 35°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 36°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 38°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 39°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.