TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 37°C on July 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,222
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,618

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,222 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x938d…8674backed Yes33c464.46$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.4646733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes48c273.39$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.2963538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86d3…da78backed Yes33c241.62$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8726533.2%88 W · 177 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes44c217.34$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.645,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No72c214.33$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.34,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes42c199.05$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8320…e302backed Yes49c186.8$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6110430.8%32 W · 72 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No54c180.78$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.834,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No57c170.2$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.984,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No57c164.8$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.631,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No56c150$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc89f…14a9backed Yes49c148.45$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3918650.5%94 W · 92 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No50c142.5$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.832,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7515…0d06backed No48c124.54$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.544161%25 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No58c122$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.31,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No57c121.41$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.322,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes37c119.33$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.056,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes45c112.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5045238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes43c101.86$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.82,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No65c99.52$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.834,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes39c96.56$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No58c93$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.081,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes37c92.5$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.232,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes39c90.53$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6445253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No63c90$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes38c81.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.452,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No60c80$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes43c80$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No57c78.95$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.951,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes41c77.08$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.281,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes28c75.8$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0357747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No57c75.44$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4434151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e97…7773backed No66c71.39$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2712271.3%87 W · 35 L-0.2wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes37c68.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.413,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1e7…8ffbbacked Yes75c66.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+28.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No65c61.3$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.761,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No61c59.95$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.234,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes44c59.25$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.981,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes37c58.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.731,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes38c57.74$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.875,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked Yes44c56.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9962555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f10…563bbacked Yes32c55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.458835.2%31 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes25c54.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.884,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No52c53.67$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.759,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe22e…074bbacked Yes40c50.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-54.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.560550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x073e…8416backed No55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.58848.9%43 W · 45 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227223.6%17 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed Yes41c49.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4944448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No56c49.09$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.691861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No28c44.44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.882,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No59c44$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0449359%291 W · 202 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No55c43.94$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.771,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.663255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No41c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.71,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No69c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.355,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed Yes36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.254234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No66c39.77$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.521,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No55c39.67$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.018,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No60c39.58$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.831,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e07…d211backed Yes38c38.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.482642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e9…566cbacked Yes66c38.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251010%1 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick38cpaid-63.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No63c38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.142,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes40c37.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1537144.2%164 W · 207 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes41c34.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.212,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes31c34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.694,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd39…5f76backed No58c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.249569.5%66 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.91,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes44c32.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.451,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b35…bb20backed Yes62c32.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208263.4%52 W · 30 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.11,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.181855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes54c27.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1515051.3%77 W · 73 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed Yes38c27.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes40c27.61$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0471649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No58c27.58$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5968867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No66c27.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2439956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No63c26.58$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8392761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10e0…92e4backed Yes52c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1327744%122 W · 155 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8db…7cd0backed Yes62c24.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes43c23.68$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.091,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes55c23.58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.062,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd654…2efebacked No59c23.44$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6140461.4%248 W · 156 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c22.28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.161,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes55c22.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.312,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No60c20.46$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.181,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No55c20.38$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.192,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No66c19.47$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.622,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2af…43b9backed No65c17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.95785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick52cpaid+83.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No66c15.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2794066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.