Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7538cc62c31fc2cae82da1911900a1d77cdfb202346051a67822dd4f4a8bde8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,349$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8e…af43backed Yes | 1c | 3,893$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…8db9backed Yes | 3c | 2,891$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.11 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 31c | 705.49$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.83 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 53c | 602.84$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.49 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 550.97$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.25 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 65c | 498.5$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.02 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 51c | 494.53$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.53 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 77c | 473.49$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.25 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 471.53$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 11c | 453.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 38c | 433.88$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.1 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…f00abacked Yes | 31c | 419.82$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…0ab4backed Yes | 66c | 341.9$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.03 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 336.35$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 333.91$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.66 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 46c | 256.82$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.53 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 35c | 255.25$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.04 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 37c | 246.83$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.76 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 70c | 242.42$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 38c | 236.06$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.76 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked Yes | 69c | 233.29$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.02 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 58c | 223.97$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.63 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…6087backed Yes | 70c | 219.41$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.27 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 26c | 192.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 26c | 191.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.76 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 74c | 183.96$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.51 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 52c | 178.58$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.65 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 73c | 170.91$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e7…43abbacked Yes | 38c | 157.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…acaabacked Yes | 30c | 154.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 34c | 154.87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.65 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 147.29$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 75c | 142.27$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked No | 73c | 127.48$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 122.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 40c | 122.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1589…95e3backed Yes | 31c | 118.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 114.78$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 74c | 113.95$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 35c | 111.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 74c | 108.71$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 79c | 107.89$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 24c | 104.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 30c | 103.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba04…310bbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…8d47backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 75c | 98.11$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 97.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 74c | 97.11$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 41c | 93.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 92.31$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 73c | 89.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 64c | 89.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 28c | 88.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 85.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 33c | 83.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 31c | 82.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 27c | 81.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 65c | 78.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 77.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 76c | 77.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 58c | 76.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…222fbacked Yes | 27c | 74.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 27c | 72.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 24c | 72.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 70c | 69.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…675dbacked Yes | 25c | 68.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 56c | 67.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 60c | 65.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 34c | 65.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 74c | 62.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked No | 74c | 62.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 49c | 62.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 21c | 61.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 47c | 60.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 72c | 57.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed No | 72c | 56.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…c5eabacked Yes | 27c | 54.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 27c | 54.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…7657backed Yes | 66c | 53.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 36c | 51.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 69c | 51.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c5…f6f1backed Yes | 56c | 51.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 60c | 50.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad3…bbccbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 65c | 49.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed Yes | 67c | 49.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed Yes | 28c | 48.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 36c | 48.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 32c | 48.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 72c | 47.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 76c | 46.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 39c | 45.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…5a06backed Yes | 62c | 45.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.