Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51cd49567eceaf46b514e86b6533c1ea0d85dd6a01aad3de5576e7a46a2d0cbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $142,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f2…33e5backed No | 1c | 67,186$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.51 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5b…dec2backed No | 0c | 24,659$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 2c | 5,357$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.46 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c7…bc56backed No | 3c | 2,350$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4921…5238backed No | 2c | 1,090$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 2c | 981.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 809.63$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed No | 3c | 710.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 3c | 673.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 4c | 589.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 39c | 456.95$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.88 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 345.42$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 4c | 311.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 256.55$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 31c | 256.17$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.85 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 228.19$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 5c | 217.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 29c | 161.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.91 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 30c | 158.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.52 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 21c | 157.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.84 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 44c | 132.35$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 49c | 129.72$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 29c | 117.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.74 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 32c | 115.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 109.72$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.31 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 43c | 109.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 51c | 106.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 73c | 101.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ad…8db9backed Yes | 29c | 100.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 25c | 100.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.51 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 59c | 99.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 31c | 99.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 99.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 45c | 98.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 34c | 94.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3183…d6fbbacked Yes | 51c | 88.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…0937backed Yes | 21c | 84.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…eab7backed No | 75c | 78.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 71cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 76.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…8d47backed Yes | 50c | 74.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 30c | 74.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 50c | 68.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 75c | 64.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b5…4768backed Yes | 32c | 63.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 62.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 65c | 62.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 20c | 61.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…e98cbacked Yes | 54c | 59.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 41c | 57.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…8723backed Yes | 70c | 55.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 45 | 86.7%39 W · 6 L | +16.1wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 46c | 51.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 76c | 48.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 23c | 47.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 53c | 47.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 25c | 47.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked Yes | 28c | 46.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked Yes | 24c | 45.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 30c | 45.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 47c | 40.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 41c | 40.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0a…5270backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 60c | 39.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 61c | 37.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 51c | 36.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 55c | 35.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 48c | 31.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…3a7ebacked Yes | 52c | 27.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…ad7dbacked No | 64c | 27.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 51c | 26.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 54c | 24.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 20.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 51c | 20.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 55c | 19.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b85…7265backed No | 54c | 19.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…7657backed Yes | 67c | 18.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212f…7827backed No | 70c | 16.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.