MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7faf397eed4621b47c57b5f5d473b714a94f755efc72d2a0c428c8bd47992bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Under | 64c | 22,596$14,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,461.24 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 36c | 17,496$6,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,190.79 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 6,526$3,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,623.78 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 43c | 6,418$2,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,659.61 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x656a…6077backed Under | 60c | 2,516$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.51 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 41c | 1,942$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.83 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 53c | 1,834$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.49 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 50c | 1,387$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.5 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 36c | 1,332$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.91 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 40c | 945$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 805$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 46c | 599.99$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 55c | 568$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.46 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 50c | 409.28$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.64 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 48c | 341.13$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.39 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 51c | 339$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.11 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 69c | 310.33$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.57 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Under | 20c | 300$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 50c | 293.28$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.64 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 59c | 250$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 60c | 208.44$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.41 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 69c | 205.89$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.26 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 40c | 166.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.11 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 40c | 138.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 47c | 123.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 35c | 113.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.48 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25a8…13e4backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…7a29backed Over | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +72%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 60c | 98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 40c | 92.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 50c | 87.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 60c | 84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0d…7606backed Under | 59c | 70.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 44c | 61.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…6831backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 50c | 46.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 42c | 33.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 50c | 29.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…3144backed Over | 47c | 24.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d6cabacked Under | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac4…356fbacked Over | 50c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 50c | 21.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 49c | 20.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 54c | 20.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 20.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 50c | 20.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…1376backed Under | 52c | 20.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 59c | 19.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0882…dceabacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.