MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x969ac0eaad12e57688986e9a134f03349f00adc6a88a60f3dc5cf880cbebb0b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 1c | 18,222$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.57 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 14,619$7,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,237.88 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 52c | 9,315$4,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,470.99 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 70c | 5,342$3,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.06 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Under | 22c | 5,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.84 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 58c | 4,474$2,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,869.78 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 58c | 4,364$2,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,525.34 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 48c | 4,278$2,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,053.59 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 51c | 3,555$1,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,741.95 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 1c | 3,082$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 52c | 2,500$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.5 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 51c | 2,222$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.77 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 54c | 1,978$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.17 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 27c | 1,552$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.15 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed Under | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed Under | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 69 | 7.2%5 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Under | 69c | 1,074$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.76 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -17.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 49c | 1,043$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.81 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 1,029$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.95 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 1,024$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…4c4ebacked Under | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…9490backed Under | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…8a9bbacked Over | 52c | 966.54$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.94 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Under | 48c | 800$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 52c | 699.99$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 540.11$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.08 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Under | 49c | 502.73$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.34 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.77 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e50…0ea8backed Under | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 51c | 494.15$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.13 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 65c | 381.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.03 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…9324backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 48c | 283.75$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.36 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Over | 52c | 277.5$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.34 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 51c | 215.7$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 70c | 213.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.38 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Under | 15c | 199.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…235ebacked Over | 53c | 189.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.01 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…47cebacked Under | 51c | 174.16$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…4b43backed Over | 21c | 170.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.98 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 21c | 149.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.44 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 71c | 134$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 36c | 131.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.59 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 49c | 121.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…5043backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 34c | 115.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795b…a25cbacked Under | 47c | 102.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 75c | 100.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 51c | 98.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 49c | 89.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 22c | 88.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 33c | 88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Under | 77c | 74.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 50c | 67.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 49c | 60.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Under | 49c | 60.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Under | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 48c | 56.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 49c | 52.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 51c | 51.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94eb…fcdfbacked Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39bd…35dabacked Over | 58c | 50.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 55c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 49c | 40.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 49c | 39.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…b267backed Under | 65c | 32.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 49c | 30.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Under | 49c | 24.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 77c | 21.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.