MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8d7338277142d73c255e9b4be8148fef983372cf7007a170c9cce0e5ebf5b48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Houston Astros | 38c | 16,282$6,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,094.71 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…f28abacked Houston Astros | 39c | 15,601$6,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,516.34 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 13,015$8,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,069.09 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 69c | 10,696$7,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,418.89 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 8,209$5,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,007.49 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Houston Astros | 32c | 7,327$2,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,946.85 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 3,454$2,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,125.97 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 2,500$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,525 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Houston Astros | 39c | 1,715$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.28 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 1,365$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.65 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 1,166$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.05 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Houston Astros | 38c | 1,024$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.88 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 65c | 958.71$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.44 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb638…20b0backed Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 625$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -6.7wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 38c | 604$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.91 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 72c | 561.54$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.88 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 19c | 558.25$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.69 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 492.75$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.06 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Los Angeles Angels | 18c | 484.41$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Los Angeles Angels | 13c | 444.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 129 | 24.8%32 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Los Angeles Angels | 25c | 378.83$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Houston Astros | 73c | 331.07$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.04 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Houston Astros | 68c | 220$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Houston Astros | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Houston Astros | 70c | 149.07$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Angels | 19c | 144.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Houston Astros | 59c | 103.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Los Angeles Angels | 28c | 90.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Los Angeles Angels | 35c | 79.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Houston Astros | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 74.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Los Angeles Angels | 71c | 61.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Houston Astros | 34c | 55.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 54.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Los Angeles Angels | 25c | 52.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Angels | 70c | 39.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…4b43backed Houston Astros | 73c | 35.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Houston Astros | 75c | 34.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Houston Astros | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Houston Astros | 48c | 30.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 30.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…9642backed Houston Astros | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -8.9wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Los Angeles Angels | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Houston Astros | 39c | 29.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Los Angeles Angels | 35c | 28.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18d4…69a9backed Houston Astros | 78c | 28.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Los Angeles Angels | 70c | 26.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Los Angeles Angels | 66c | 21.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 18.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Houston Astros | 73c | 16.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Los Angeles Angels | 76c | 14.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.