MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d2d81a26d2f3d9aebbbd936789cf87287a2d10330e9a114f17714a987b4654a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Los Angeles Angels, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Los Angeles Angels | 33c | 18,000$5,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,910 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Houston Astros | 67c | 8,340$5,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,752.2 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 67c | 2,010$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.3 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Houston Astros | 68c | 1,471$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.59 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Houston Astros | 68c | 1,471$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.59 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Houston Astros | 67c | 1,295$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.48 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Houston Astros | 67c | 1,024$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.92 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 700$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros | 32c | 591.59$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.06 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 67c | 541$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.53 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Houston Astros | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Houston Astros | 66c | 496.38$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.28 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 25c | 411.08$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.72 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Houston Astros | 24c | 330$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.12 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 39c | 328.57$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.63 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Houston Astros | 30c | 326$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.54 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Los Angeles Angels | 19c | 179$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 129 | 24.8%32 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 68c | 164.21$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 42c | 162.68$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.87 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f45…e6a7backed Houston Astros | 68c | 147.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Houston Astros | 18c | 114.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Los Angeles Angels | 75c | 112.76$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Houston Astros | 65c | 79.91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 69.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 64.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Houston Astros | 68c | 58.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Houston Astros | 67c | 56.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 55.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Houston Astros | 39c | 48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Houston Astros | 27c | 42.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 76c | 36.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -6.9wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 31.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Los Angeles Angels | 78c | 29.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Los Angeles Angels | 66c | 28.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 28.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Los Angeles Angels | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Los Angeles Angels | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 17.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Los Angeles Angels | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.