Fifa International · resolved market
Argentina to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd85609eaff742d8d9386b19379e3a9b7d38242865e11ae0dafc36fde9d6e6eda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 4c | 10,537$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.28 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…954abacked Yes | 12c | 8,464$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,448.32 | 124 | 28.2%35 W · 89 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd273…17eabacked No | 5c | 4,490$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.63 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked No | 57c | 3,102$1,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,764.11 | 825 | 37.1%306 W · 519 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked No | 72c | 1,996$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,436.56 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 14c | 1,956$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.12 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 1,516$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.04 | 460 | 47.2%217 W · 243 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 24c | 1,479$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.13 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 30c | 1,159$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.29 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaff…5cb1backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Yes | 15c | 989.47$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.05 | 131 | 58.8%77 W · 54 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 27c | 851$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.72 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 70c | 841.97$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.38 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed No | 41c | 827$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.64 | 272 | 27.6%75 W · 197 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb29…947abacked No | 69c | 772.58$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.08 | 188 | 43.1%81 W · 107 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef84…6872backed No | 3c | 749.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 137 | 5.1%7 W · 130 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…1885backed Yes | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.74 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 68c | 688.77$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.81 | 757 | 29.3%222 W · 535 L | -23.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 26c | 621.33$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.78 | 252 | 44.8%113 W · 139 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x307a…d612backed Yes | 30c | 561.38$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.97 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 69c | 550$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.5 | 188 | 48.9%92 W · 96 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…06b7backed Yes | 31c | 539$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.91 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 48c | 527.6$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.5 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 30c | 525.42$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.79 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5299…bb37backed Yes | 14c | 497$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.2 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 28c | 427.85$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.78 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Yes | 51c | 399.13$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.3 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 34c | 398.68$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.95 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 23c | 361.58$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 722 | 47.2%341 W · 381 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 70c | 357$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c5…6f9cbacked Yes | 34c | 323.53$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.53 | 130 | 21.5%28 W · 102 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…61c0backed Yes | 38c | 286$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.65 | 349 | 64.5%225 W · 124 L | +73.5wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7d…96a3backed No | 70c | 284.33$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 279.8$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.61 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 70c | 268$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.85 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 36c | 230.16$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 30c | 153.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.8 | 383 | 29.8%114 W · 269 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 146.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.24 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked Yes | 15c | 134$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.9 | 113 | 60.2%68 W · 45 L | +22.2wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…c18cbacked Yes | 19c | 131.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.67 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +192.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed Yes | 31c | 90.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Yes | 57c | 86.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 669 | 32.1%215 W · 454 L | +16.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Yes | 47c | 56.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked No | 70c | 40.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 1,240 | 43.7%542 W · 698 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 78c | 37.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 1,601 | 47.8%765 W · 836 L | +51.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 70c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 866 | 56.4%488 W · 378 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 381 | 55.4%211 W · 170 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 70c | 23.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 70c | 23.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 1,151 | 58.5%673 W · 478 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 363 | 35.8%130 W · 233 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 117 | 64.1%75 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed No | 70c | 18.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,293 | 53.6%693 W · 600 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 14.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Argentina to win the second half?this page
- England to win the second half?No won
- England vs. Argentina: Second half draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.