TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tundra Esportsof PARIVISION, Tundra Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$362,827
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$390,825

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $362,827 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked PARIVISION60c82,983$49,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,559.2328748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Tundra Esports40c60,000$24,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,999.993525.7%9 W · 26 L-6.9wins-0.20per pick46cpaid-43.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed PARIVISION52c58,084$30,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,443.431,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Tundra Esports45c53,425$24,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,386.531855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed PARIVISION55c19,341$10,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,694.6656955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Tundra Esports40c13,782$5,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,304.4822848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed Tundra Esports40c12,000$4,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,154.9422647.3%107 W · 119 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed PARIVISION0c11,330$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2680443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7790…427abacked PARIVISION0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Tundra Esports47c9,260$4,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,875.791,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Tundra Esports48c9,163$4,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,794.789749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Tundra Esports46c7,902$3,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,251.451,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed PARIVISION60c7,632$4,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,578.4827153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Tundra Esports45c7,195$3,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,992.061,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Tundra Esports45c7,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,85010445.2%47 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked PARIVISION60c6,772$4,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0631,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Tundra Esports40c5,500$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,299.9929042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Tundra Esports50c5,402$2,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,679.452,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b09…5f9cbacked PARIVISION1c5,163$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed PARIVISION60c5,061$3,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,036.4315848.1%76 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Tundra Esports51c4,717$2,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,311.168649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Tundra Esports44c4,293$1,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,420.421,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked PARIVISION61c4,062$2,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,465.0742145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked PARIVISION55c3,822$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10039343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked PARIVISION53c3,500$1,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,85510646.2%49 W · 57 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed PARIVISION61c3,400$2,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,07441351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed PARIVISION57c3,350$1,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,909.529348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked PARIVISION60c3,329$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.113851.4%71 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Tundra Esports47c3,202$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,701.7435062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Tundra Esports46c3,127$1,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,688.1660552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed PARIVISION60c3,036$1,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,821.8624153.1%128 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Tundra Esports40c3,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,80041944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed PARIVISION58c3,000$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,74049455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked PARIVISION36c2,448$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.250347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed PARIVISION59c2,350$1,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,386.3935151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed PARIVISION19c2,315$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.7150832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Tundra Esports42c2,025$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.971,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked PARIVISION58c2,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16036547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b4a…8060backed PARIVISION9c2,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1803514.3%5 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-56.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Tundra Esports48c1,965$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.5256548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Tundra Esports42c1,914$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.9426843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Tundra Esports41c1,886$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.4144645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3621…2d2dbacked PARIVISION3c1,866$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.965558.2%32 W · 23 L+7.6wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+65.4%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked PARIVISION59c1,836$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.0239660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed PARIVISION61c1,639$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00061745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd9d…f409backed Tundra Esports80c1,621$1,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.22751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d8d…9fb0backed PARIVISION1c1,550$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.218622.1%19 W · 67 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89ff…a8f2backed PARIVISION57c1,526$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.24450%22 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Tundra Esports45c1,467$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.7877256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed PARIVISION60c1,402$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.9933541.2%138 W · 197 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Tundra Esports40c1,362$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.3743344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed PARIVISION29c1,219$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35672035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4e…9516backed Tundra Esports41c1,198$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked PARIVISION30c1,156$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.81,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Tundra Esports52c1,149$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.2725446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed PARIVISION52c1,118$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.2325935.5%92 W · 167 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked PARIVISION14c1,111$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.1199844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Tundra Esports53c1,093$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.8418356.8%104 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Tundra Esports41c1,053$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.2736851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked PARIVISION59c1,011$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.2734544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked PARIVISION16c981.46$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16032756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d36…51debacked PARIVISION5c943.8$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.195330.2%16 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf29…da00backed PARIVISION60c930.53$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.3210751.4%55 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked PARIVISION60c889.95$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.9739550.1%198 W · 197 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed PARIVISION6c850$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5151544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed PARIVISION7c849.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5ae1backed PARIVISION60c833.33$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006354%34 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x883d…3627backed Tundra Esports40c812.99$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.121050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Tundra Esports40c750$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45034051.5%175 W · 165 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked PARIVISION35c729.41$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25320452.5%107 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed PARIVISION55c699.98$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.9956852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Tundra Esports43c691.94$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.9448054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed PARIVISION36c667$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.781,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked PARIVISION29c662.55$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.471,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…c5e1backed PARIVISION36c639$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.541040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf91c…baa7backed PARIVISION55c637.09$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.41450%7 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Tundra Esports41c600$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35474549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed Tundra Esports45c593.11$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.8716242.6%69 W · 93 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed PARIVISION53c580.1$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.4622644.7%101 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Tundra Esports54c556.99$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.321,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Tundra Esports45c554.73$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.7448053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Tundra Esports40c530$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31850749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked PARIVISION20c524.01$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.171,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Tundra Esports49c516.41$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.971,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed PARIVISION58c513.08$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.9550053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed PARIVISION48c510.42$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2451,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d93…b34dbacked PARIVISION59c500$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2953228.1%9 W · 23 L-10.4wins-0.33per pick61cpaid-57.4%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Tundra Esports39c500$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30516842.9%72 W · 96 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Tundra Esports39c500$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30543738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed PARIVISION56c499.98$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.9960251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed PARIVISION60c484$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.441050.2%206 W · 204 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdec9…b8abbacked PARIVISION60c465$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27914750.3%74 W · 73 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe84a…702dbacked Tundra Esports43c453.67$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.6715949.7%79 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeea8…0412backed PARIVISION58c450$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2618946.1%41 W · 48 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed PARIVISION46c439.07$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.8496245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c27…cb5bbacked PARIVISION54c434.26$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.58469%58 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Tundra Esports51c420.44$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.0853139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd7f5…40d7backed Tundra Esports50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2004141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc6e…fa6fbacked PARIVISION60c394.97$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2367058.6%41 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d7c…b7dbbacked Tundra Esports41c385.71$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.5717946.9%84 W · 95 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.