NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8d0da7a9ea9d373fd08c2a135bd2d2add0535573b802f5d3d36f834f7b6500d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Clippersof Hawks, Clippers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Hawks | 41c | 20,520$8,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,352.8 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Clippers | 60c | 17,400$10,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,960 | 267 | 53.2%142 W · 125 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Clippers | 55c | 10,169$5,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,577.02 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 42c | 7,396$3,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,084.39 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Hawks | 41c | 7,138$2,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,926.7 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Clippers | 55c | 4,535$2,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,060.75 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Hawks | 45c | 3,333$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.85 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawks | 40c | 3,035$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.45 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Hawks | 45c | 2,400$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf95…3114backed Clippers | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafd1…da41backed Hawks | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Hawks | 40c | 1,876$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.5 | 591 | 40.8%241 W · 350 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Hawks | 46c | 1,817$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.82 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Clippers | 59c | 1,406$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.46 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks | 45c | 759.72$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.8 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Hawks | 43c | 500$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Clippers | 59c | 279.76$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.7 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…5ed7backed Clippers | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Hawks | 45c | 190.43$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Hawks | 46c | 183.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.64 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…4516backed Clippers | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Clippers | 55c | 132.73$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Hawks | 47c | 131.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Hawks | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Hawks | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Hawks | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Hawks | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb317…1893backed Clippers | 61c | 73.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Hawks | 40c | 72.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Clippers | 56c | 71.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Clippers | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hawks | 46c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Clippers | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Hawks | 46c | 38.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Hawks | 41c | 24.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Clippers | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)this page
- Clippers vs. HawksClippers won
- Clippers vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineClippers won
- Clippers vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Hawks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Hawks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Hawks (-1.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Hawks (-3.5)Clippers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.