College Football · resolved market
Kansas vs. UCF
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd908540a029fd0b5111cf84713ac6c73a6af185ab6438e873191bb621d2fd15f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansasof Kansas, UCF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Kansas | 63c | 24,305$15,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,900.25 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed UCF | 16c | 5,425$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.45 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Kansas | 75c | 5,301$3,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.55 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8d…037abacked UCF | 60c | 4,967$2,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,970.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Kansas | 74c | 4,929$3,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.68 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked UCF | 36c | 3,591$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.83 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Kansas | 63c | 3,406$2,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.17 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed UCF | 46c | 2,250$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.69 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed UCF | 14c | 1,922$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.94 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed UCF | 45c | 1,897$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.79 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked UCF | 40c | 1,663$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.5 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked UCF | 36c | 1,249$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.6 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed UCF | 36c | 1,065$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.4 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed UCF | 16c | 1,057$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.77 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e9…df05backed Kansas | 64c | 976.56$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked UCF | 39c | 922.85$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.18 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Kansas | 63c | 799.97$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.99 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed UCF | 44c | 697.5$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.9 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked UCF | 36c | 639.68$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.28 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Kansas | 64c | 625$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked UCF | 36c | 618.46$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.46 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Kansas | 40c | 604.33$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.6 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kansas | 75c | 597$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.13 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f82…d6abbacked UCF | 43c | 570.03$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.15 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked UCF | 38c | 528.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Kansas | 64c | 390.63$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.63 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed UCF | 17c | 375.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas | 48c | 325.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.4 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…05f6backed Kansas | 40c | 306$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.6 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed UCF | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Kansas | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked UCF | 35c | 249$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.15 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed UCF | 37c | 234.53$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.78 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked UCF | 11c | 210$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…b2ddbacked UCF | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…d61ebacked UCF | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked UCF | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed UCF | 37c | 139.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Kansas | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Kansas | 64c | 104.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked UCF | 36c | 103$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 292 | 49%143 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed UCF | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed UCF | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed UCF | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed UCF | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Kansas | 70c | 94.29$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 61 | 70.5%43 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Kansas | 41c | 90$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe408…232bbacked Kansas | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…73fdbacked Kansas | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Kansas | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…d466backed Kansas | 65c | 66.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…4d0bbacked Kansas | 43c | 64.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked UCF | 36c | 60.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a03…47c1backed UCF | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…329ebacked UCF | 61c | 52.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Kansas | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked UCF | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…3612backed UCF | 57c | 41.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed UCF | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Kansas | 61c | 39.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef68…b9f4backed Kansas | 40c | 30.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd715…5792backed Kansas | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Kansas | 63c | 16.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8272…541dbacked Kansas | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3a…d4d5backed Kansas | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8778…f27fbacked Kansas | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee0…21f8backed Kansas | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas vs. UCFthis page
- Kansas vs. UCF: O/U 52.5Under won
- Kansas vs. UCF: O/U 54.5Under won
- O/U 55.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas (-5.5)Kansas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.