MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd911a468a75ba6451cbfc08e912e6f06a17d3b1976f1a2c04d598b414e73e98c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc30b…b9dbbacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 2,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 2,284$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.17 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 1,305$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.27 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…82c6backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 999.91$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.94 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 957$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.63 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 896.16$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.74 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 480$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.2 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 457.98$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.21 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 410.84$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.39 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 400.1$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3770…88a6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 350$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.5 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 328.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 251.82$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.89 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 221.37$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.82 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 207.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.02 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90fe…b7b8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 140.85$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 15c | 136.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 411 | 52.3%215 W · 196 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 109$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners | 66c | 97.85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 89.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 88.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 55.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…df77backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Seattle Mariners | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 49.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 48.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Seattle Mariners | 37c | 46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 45.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 41.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 31.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 30.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 25.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Seattle Mariners | 48c | 23.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2176…bc30backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 19.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.