NHL · resolved market
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9b7322955b2b550e8b888505945d9a2b824383dbac88db87c0bbaaa401465fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Starsof Avalanche, Stars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,879 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Avalanche | 34c | 2,222$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.46 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Stars | 66c | 1,811$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.74 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Stars | 65c | 1,032$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.15 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Stars | 78c | 1,009$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.83 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Avalanche | 29c | 679.7$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Stars | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Stars | 65c | 460$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Avalanche | 35c | 428.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Avalanche | 22c | 415.1$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.29 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Avalanche | 34c | 400.78$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.27 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Avalanche | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…9ae9backed Avalanche | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Stars | 79c | 269$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…f879backed Avalanche | 37c | 268.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Stars | 62c | 263.1$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.98 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Avalanche | 35c | 259$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.65 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Avalanche | 34c | 257$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Avalanche | 35c | 254.29$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Stars | 65c | 238.8$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Avalanche | 21c | 225.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…74a8backed Avalanche | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Avalanche | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Stars | 67c | 159.52$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Avalanche | 16c | 154.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Avalanche | 19c | 122$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Stars | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Avalanche | 19c | 107.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Stars | 64c | 107.63$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Stars | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Avalanche | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Avalanche | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 140 | 37.9%53 W · 87 L | -13.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Avalanche | 22c | 96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Avalanche | 28c | 79.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | +18.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Stars | 66c | 77.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Avalanche | 34c | 75.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Avalanche | 31c | 69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 277 | 39.4%109 W · 168 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Avalanche | 33c | 68.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Stars | 68c | 62.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Stars | 66c | 59.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Avalanche | 29c | 48.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Avalanche | 32c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Stars | 73c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Avalanche | 32c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Stars | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Stars | 67c | 32.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Stars | 66c | 31.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Stars | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Stars | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Stars | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Stars | 65c | 25.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Stars | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Stars | 64c | 20.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)this page
- Stars vs. AvalancheStars won
- Stars vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5Under won
- Stars vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5Under won
- Stars vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5Under won
- Stars vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.