NHL · resolved market
Stars vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5ef3d723177b4ace4eb744c258be8e2e9b0d96d0e7fe44fffb09f6d548cd6c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,720 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 68c | 505.89$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.54 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 51c | 458.9$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.11 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 37c | 381$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.6 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 29c | 317$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.07 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd5…9801backed Under | 47c | 274.89$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.31 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x985f…7a5bbacked Over | 65c | 230.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 154.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c5…5a2fbacked Under | 68c | 147.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 56c | 146.25$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 75c | 145$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.75 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Over | 35c | 131.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ec7bbacked Over | 57c | 122.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 28c | 110$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…04b7backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 29c | 97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 77c | 86.4$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Over | 56c | 83.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | +18.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 16c | 81.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 41c | 81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 35c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 32c | 67.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 79c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 76c | 49.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 72c | 40.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked Over | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 38c | 30.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 69c | 26.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…485abacked Over | 57c | 19.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stars vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Stars won
- Stars vs. AvalancheStars won
- Stars vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5Under won
- Stars vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5Under won
- Stars vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.