Music · resolved market
Will Denmark be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda1aff476ee97d9ee6866b3a091e545c6703b1138ead25ebfcb9ee18fc140240
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 20c | 1,590$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.03 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 17c | 1,277$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9756backed Yes | 17c | 1,273$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…74b0backed No | 80c | 1,223$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 20c | 618$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed Yes | 20c | 605$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 15c | 596.96$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.17 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +75%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 79c | 588.74$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.26 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed No | 79c | 586$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e08…7e2ebacked Yes | 21c | 586$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed Yes | 19c | 558$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 20c | 529$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.31 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 25c | 515.37$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.39 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 19c | 514$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 78c | 344.99$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…51b1backed Yes | 20c | 343$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +231.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 80c | 300$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.86 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked Yes | 19c | 292.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 22c | 215.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e4…93ecbacked Yes | 21c | 193.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…c1b8backed Yes | 16c | 187.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 23c | 167.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…81ffbacked Yes | 28c | 158$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 10c | 155.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f24…a7fcbacked Yes | 25c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +446.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2c…48e4backed No | 80c | 88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71e4…2381backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e7…b0f7backed Yes | 20c | 71.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x851e…70cfbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 59.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 24c | 59.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…0676backed Yes | 25c | 40.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…62afbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 77c | 35.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 79c | 25.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Denmark be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026?this page
- Will Finland be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026?Yes won
- Will Sweden be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.