Music · resolved market
Will Finland be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa09439b1308074b31cb2481ead54a1d369536db5d36880f7e384dee2e76f21ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed No | 18c | 15,652$2,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,817.18 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +205.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 33c | 5,975$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,953.46 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3921…3368backed Yes | 68c | 5,269$3,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,681.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes | 68c | 2,636$1,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.25 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4d35backed Yes | 67c | 974.39$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.41 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…0170backed No | 27c | 689.99$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.3 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…53a1backed No | 33c | 654.98$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 26c | 637.71$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.17 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +128.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 66c | 600$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 4c | 597.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 24c | 586.68$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.1 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 61c | 537.82$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 30c | 500.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.05 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +75%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…978cbacked Yes | 68c | 500$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 35c | 488.23$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.85 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 16c | 459.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7776…1e8cbacked Yes | 67c | 440.06$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.81 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Yes | 78c | 400$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 17c | 341.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…3f38backed Yes | 65c | 308.9$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Yes | 65c | 297.04$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9635…2911backed Yes | 70c | 295.22$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 32c | 295$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c02…89e4backed Yes | 67c | 260.51$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3f…32a4backed No | 11c | 210$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 33c | 207.04$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 24c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 35c | 183.6$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 18c | 180$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 16c | 172.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed No | 32c | 160.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed Yes | 64c | 155.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…608bbacked Yes | 65c | 152.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x922d…ac68backed Yes | 67c | 149.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 75c | 148.94$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf808…54d1backed Yes | 68c | 146.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5722…563ebacked Yes | 72c | 140.44$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6d…f13bbacked Yes | 74c | 140$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 32c | 137.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf17e…b9d1backed No | 29c | 130$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +78%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 34c | 121.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…a134backed Yes | 69c | 119.3$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…10d0backed Yes | 69c | 115.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 21c | 111.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2c…48e4backed No | 20c | 88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 25c | 84.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa51a…f2fcbacked Yes | 75c | 81.55$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…4429backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb8…d90abacked Yes | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a64…8a67backed Yes | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 34c | 55.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4e…3f78backed No | 37c | 53.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…3fe8backed Yes | 66c | 53.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 29c | 47.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b01…4ac3backed Yes | 67c | 46.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…0d5bbacked Yes | 62c | 43.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fed…a1f9backed No | 32c | 41.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed Yes | 59c | 38.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed No | 40c | 38.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 29c | 35.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 34c | 32.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 33c | 32.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafdd…d424backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea3…52a1backed Yes | 62c | 28.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…c524backed Yes | 66c | 27.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8e…25d9backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…a3bdbacked Yes | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f01…4e0dbacked Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94c4…43cabacked Yes | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Finland be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026?this page
- Will Denmark be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026?No won
- Will Sweden be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.