Stocks · resolved market
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdaaeabd8c7a1090989e2c1943f727211a3368e7fae06a217c8ddee40696a55e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 8c | 1,250$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd86c…d09abacked No | 10c | 1,019$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.17 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…217cbacked No | 25c | 897.34$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.65 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…dcccbacked No | 7c | 606.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…c6f1backed Yes | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 12c | 481.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e32…e723backed No | 10c | 366$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f61…8e4fbacked No | 5c | 359$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 350$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed No | 6c | 330.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 6c | 259.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Yes | 79c | 241.2$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 209.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 10c | 180$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3158backed No | 12c | 170$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…2c52backed No | 7c | 148.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 13c | 116$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…89a0backed No | 10c | 108$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…0c89backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7a…2f10backed Yes | 75c | 17.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 end of January?this page
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $270 end of January?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of January?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 end of January?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 end of January?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $320 end of January?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of January?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $340 end of January?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 end of January?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 end of January?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.