Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb5f654eaa4fb10f8626429bad2b90de99252157c3b81469068f8530999954ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 33c | 797.13$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.54 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 41c | 781.88$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.29 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 38c | 399.56$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.18 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed No | 76c | 267.39$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.38 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 48c | 250$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 246$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 239.62$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 214$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.38 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 37c | 213.62$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.58 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 204.2$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.91 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 69c | 199.6$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.44 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed Yes | 57c | 181.25$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.53 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 28c | 180.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 11c | 142.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 109.7$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 108$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 108$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 99.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 85.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 84.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 65c | 75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 59c | 61.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 61.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 63c | 60.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…47e4backed Yes | 43c | 57.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 61c | 53.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 46.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 38c | 45.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 47c | 45.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 63c | 44.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 42.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 55c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 61c | 37.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 28c | 36.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed No | 56c | 36.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked No | 57c | 35.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fff…7abfbacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…9460backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 50c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 27.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…f4b1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 17.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 17.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 64c | 16.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.