Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb6c1ae7ab3f6504675aa5c09676dbe0befc1fc0e503939c500c3b79ae68762c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 2,995$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 37c | 996.35$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.3 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 629.3$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.51 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 569.04$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.54 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 3c | 476.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 11c | 417.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 26c | 350$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 291.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 278.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 10c | 250$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 22c | 224.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 21c | 221.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…a41ebacked Yes | 15c | 220$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 206.72$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…0cc3backed Yes | 43c | 201.02$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.34 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…3ec1backed Yes | 13c | 165.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 149.9$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 143.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 20c | 129.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 77c | 120.9$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 119$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 114.42$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 22c | 110.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 109.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 19c | 106.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 15c | 99.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 23c | 96.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 15c | 96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0616…ea27backed Yes | 21c | 91.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 72c | 89.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 19c | 87.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 20c | 87.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 85.02$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 16c | 84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 22c | 83.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 82.91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 23c | 82.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 80.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 79c | 76.61$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 20c | 72.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…3adfbacked Yes | 35c | 71.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 71.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 42c | 70.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 16c | 67.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 20c | 65.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 27c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 22c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 19c | 63.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed Yes | 26c | 62.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 25c | 62.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036b…93bdbacked Yes | 22c | 62.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 25c | 61.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 75c | 59.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf57…52f2backed No | 65c | 57.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 24c | 56.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 26c | 51.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2975…56e0backed Yes | 26c | 51.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 65c | 45.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 24c | 42.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 76c | 42.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 42.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 41.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 75c | 38.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43bc…fcdfbacked No | 80c | 37.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 55c | 32.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 67c | 32.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 79c | 30.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 30.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 76c | 29.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 77c | 28.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 27.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fca…b9b4backed No | 77c | 27.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 24.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd520…9a13backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 18.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 17.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 65c | 17.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 79c | 16.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.